​Over the past two years in a 12-team College Football Playoff format, the Big 12 has clearly lagged behind its Power Five peers. The league has produced two CFP teams in that span, and both times it was the conference champion; so far under the current format, the Big 12 is 0-2 in those appearances. Since the CFP era began in 2014 with a four-team field, the Big 12 remains the only Power conference not to crown a national champion, while the Big Ten has four, the SEC six, and the ACC two. The Big Ten has won the last three national championships, the SEC four in a row before that, and while it’s been eight years since an ACC school won the title, Miami reached the national championship game last year. The question now is whether the Big 12 can make meaningful strides on the national stage during the 2026 season.
This past week, ESPN rolled out its initial rankings for the Football Power Index, a predictive metric intended to project a team’s performance. The early numbers illustrate the uphill climb the Big 12 faces in catching up to the sport’s other power leagues. In the FPI top 10, Texas Tech sits at 10th with a score of 20.0, followed by BYU at 13.1, Utah at 8.5, Arizona at 7.2, Houston at 7.1, Baylor at 6.5, TCU at 6.4, Kansas State at 5.1, Arizona State at 4.8, Colorado at 4.5, Cincinnati at 4.4, Oklahoma State at 3.3, Kansas at 2.8, UCF at 2.1, West Virginia at 0.2, and Iowa State at −0.9. The placement underscores the challenge: last year’s playoff-caliber program status isn’t fully replicated across the league this season.
A notable note is the shift in expectations compared with a year ago. In the previous cycle, five Big 12 teams carried at least a 10 percent or better chance of winning the conference and reaching the playoff. This year, only two teams are above that 10 percent threshold: Texas Tech at 57.9 percent and BYU at 25.7 percent, with Utah at 11.1 percent the next closest. That spread indicates a top-heavy league in which most of the strength resides in a small handful of programs.
Texas Tech captured the Big 12 title last season and earned a bye to the CFP quarterfinals, yet their playoff run ended with a 23–0 loss to Oregon. By comparison, the SEC boasts 12 programs with better than 10 percent odds to reach the CFP, the Big Ten 7, and the ACC 4—significantly more than the Big 12. In terms of overall predictive rankings, the Big 12 currently has only two teams in the Football Power Index’s top 25, with five more entering the top 40. TheSEC’s presence in the top 25 remains substantial, occupying a large share of the ranking, which reflects the broader perception of regional power dynamics.
Taken together, the data paints a picture of a league that, while capable of competing at a high level, faces an uphill climb to consistently contend for national titles. The gap between the Big 12 and the sport’s traditional powerhouses appears wider this year than in some recent seasons, particularly when compared to the SEC and, to a lesser extent, the Big Ten and ACC. Whether the Big 12 can close the gap and reemerge as a true national championship contender will depend on development, recruiting success, scheduling strength, and performance in pivotal late-season games.