​Tarik Skubal is unlikely to sign a multi-year contract extension with the Detroit Tigers based purely on financial considerations. Even if there had been any interest, the timing for pursuing such an agreement would likely have been during the past two offseasons, and in truth, neither side showed genuine eagerness to lock him in. As the two-time reigning Cy Young winner and widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball, with free agency looming after the 2026 season, Skubal stands in a position to command the highest dollar value and the top average annual salary ever paid to a pitcher. Projections suggest a total value in the neighborhood of $350 million or more.
To gauge what it would take to sign Skubal to a multi-year deal, one can start by reviewing the all-time top ten total contracts for pitchers and the corresponding average annual value (AAV). While no pitcher has yet surpassed $325 million in total value through a single contract, that figure represents the largest total commitment for a pitcher to date. The top example is the Los Angeles Dodgers’ signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto for $325 million over 12 seasons, from 2024 through 2035. The Dodgers also paid a substantial posting fee to the Japanese league, which is often a complicating factor in the overall expenditure for the player.
Here is a concise look at the ten highest total-value contracts for pitchers in MLB history (total dollars, contract length, team, and AAV where listed):
– Yoshinobu Yamamoto: $325,000,000 over 12 years (Dodgers, 2024-2035) with an AAV of $27.08 million
– Cole: $324,000,000 over 9 years (Yankees, 2020-2028) with an AAV of $36.0 million
– Strasburg: $245,000,000 over 7 years (Nationals, 2020-2026) with an AAV of $35.0 million
– Fried: $218,000,000 over 8 years (Yankees, 2025-2032) with an AAV of $27.25 million
– Price: $217,000,000 over 7 years (Red Sox, 2016-2022) with an AAV of $31.0 million
– Kershaw: $215,000,000 over 7 years (Dodgers, 2014-2020) with an AAV of $30.7 million
– Scherzer: $210,000,000 over 7 years (Nationals, 2015-2021) with an AAV of $30.0 million
– Burnes: $210,000,000 over 6 years (Diamondbacks, 2025-2030) with an AAV of $35.0 million
– Grienke: $206,500,000 over 6 years (Diamondbacks, 2016-2021) with an AAV of $34.4 million
– deGrom: $185,000,000 over 5 years (Rangers, 2023-2027) with an AAV of $37.0 million
Only two pitchers in MLB history have signed contracts exceeding $250 million in total value, and only three have exceeded $218 million, with just one of those counts occurring in the last several seasons. Even so, Skubal is anticipated to command a total value well beyond these figures, given his performance and the contract trends for elite starting pitchers. The historic record for total salary belongs to Yamamoto, but his AAV ranks 51st among all MLB players and 15th among pitchers because the value is spread across 12 seasons. Whether Skubal would actually pitch that long remains to be seen, but the market suggests a premium that could push him into uncharted territory.
When we shift focus to average annual value, the list of the ten highest AAVs paid to pitchers reveals a similarly lofty landscape. The all-time top AAVs include Shohei Ohtani (though he is more than a pitcher) and several late-cycle deals that created new benchmarks for pitcher salaries. Here is a snapshot of the highest AAV contracts for pitchers in MLB history:
– Ohtani: approximately $46.08 million AAV over 10 seasons (Dodgers, 2024-2033)
– Max Scherzer: $43.33 million AAV over 3 seasons (Mets, 2022-2024)
– Justin Verlander: $43.33 million AAV over 2 seasons (Mets, 2023-2024)
– Kyle Wright: approximately $42.0 million AAV over 4 seasons (Phillies, 2024-2027)
– Framber Valdez: around $38.33 million AAV over 3 seasons (Tigers, 2026-2028)
– deGrom: $37.00 million AAV over 5 seasons (Rangers, 2023-2027)
– Snell: about $36.40 million AAV over 6 seasons (Dodgers, 2024-2029)
– Cole: $36.00 million AAV over 9 seasons (Yankees, 2020-2028)
– Strasburg: $35.0 million AAV over 8 seasons (as noted above)
– Others in the mix with high AAV figures show the trend: premium pay for elite innings, durability, and peak performance years.
In any case, Skubal’s path to a record-setting deal would hinge on multiple factors beyond pure numbers: the length of the contract, the structure of annual salaries, potential opt-outs, and how his health and performance evolve as he nears free agency after the 2026 season. It’s reasonable to expect that he could secure a deal approaching the top tier of MLB pitcher contracts, potentially breaking new ground if the market continues to push higher. However, whether he signs an extension with Detroit or tests the open market remains to be seen, and the decision will likely be driven by both sides’ willingness to commit to a long-term, high-dollar arrangement.