​As the Astros edge toward the All-Star break, a handful of positions stand out as potentially pivotal, capable of swinging the difference between sneaking into the playoffs and falling short. Catching is one of those areas. There’s no denying Yainer Díaz has underwhelmed so far, but could a scorching second half alter the narrative? There’s also a meaningful distinction between league-wide expectations and positional expectations that often gets overlooked.
One of the most engaging debates in baseball is how to name the MVP. Last season, the discussion centered on Cal Raleigh versus Aaron Judge. By most traditional and sabermetric measures, Judge was the superior player and the rightful pick for the award. Yet, even if you discard WAR and similar metrics, there’s a compelling case that Raleigh was extraordinarily productive at a position where production is rare.
My favorite measure of offensive value is bases per out. In essence, outs are the currency of the game—the team is given 27 per game, and the objective is to maximize damage with every out you incur. That perspective helps explain why sacrifices have dwindled in use. It’s informative to compare league-wide numbers, but averages don’t tell the full story. When evaluating players for the Hall of Fame, I always start with the position. It’s illogical to compare a catcher to a first baseman; the demands and the expected performances are different.
I examined the semi-regular to regular catchers in the American League. To qualify, a catcher needs at least 120 outs, which typically corresponds to around 200 plate appearances. Comparing Yainer Díaz and Christian Vázquez to the league average can be disheartening. The major league average for bases per out sits around .676 as of the last weekend. A few days of data won’t dramatically alter the picture after 90 games. When you look at catchers, the overall AL catching cohort often appears underwhelming beside Díaz and Vázquez.
Below is a snapshot of AL catchers, excluding Díaz and Vázquez, to illuminate the positional mean and median. This exercise underscores that bases per out is calculated by summing total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit-by-pitches, then dividing by total outs. I prize this stat because it condenses a player’s offensive contributions into a single figure. It proves more informative than OPS and aligns reasonably well with rates like wOBA and rOBA. Here is the AL catching landscape through the weekend:
– Dillon Dingler: Outs 243, TBB 163, BSB 230, HBP 7, POB 0, .794
– Shea Langeliers: Outs 249, TBB 163, BSB 282, HBP 4, POB 0, .791
– Samuel Basallo: Outs 193, TBB 117, BSB 250, HBP 0, POB 0, .736
– Adley Rutschman: Outs 178, TBB 101, BSB 240, HBP 1, POB 0, .708
– Carter Jensen: Outs 224, TBB 127, BSB 271, HBP 1, POB 0, .696
– Victor Caratini: Outs 172, TBB 78, BSB 250, HBP 9, POB 0, .651
– Kyle Higashio—ako: Outs 120, TBB 49, BSB 170, HBP 1, POB 0, .558
– Cal Raleigh: Outs 192, TBB 68, BSB 312, HBP 0, POB 0, .526
– Logan O’Hoppe: Outs 154, TBB 64, BSB 140, HBP 3, POB 0, .526
– Nick Fortes: Outs 152, TBB 67, BSB 0, HBP 0, POB 0, .???
This approach serves as a reminder: bases per out consolidates hitters’ contributions into a single, telling number. It integrates power, patience, speed, and discipline into one metric, and it tends to track closely with broader on-base and advanced metrics like wOBA and rOBA. Using this lens helps set reasonable expectations for how Díaz and Díaz’s peers might perform, especially as the season unfolds and the postseason chase intensifies.