​A few weeks back, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his 2026 college football preseason preview, and his method relies on distinct formulas and metrics to rank teams by offense, defense, and special teams individually. When he applies these tools to the Big Ten, his Michigan Wolverines projection doesn’t look particularly bright for contending for the conference title. Do you agree with Connelly, or do you lean more toward optimism, believing this year’s team can surpass expectations?
Let’s break down Connelly’s rankings a bit. He begins with continuity percentages, noting that among the top-20 teams in returning production nationally, eight come from the Big Ten. Michigan sits at No. 20 in that metric, with Maryland (2), Nebraska (3), Minnesota (8), UCLA (10), Oregon (12), USC (14), and Washington (16) ahead of them in the conference. Of those, only UCLA returns more offensive production than Michigan within the Big Ten. On the defensive side, Michigan lands more toward the middle of the pack.
Moving deeper into the rankings, Connelly identifies a clear Big Ten hierarchy in his overall projections: a top trio led by Ohio State as the nation’s best, followed by Oregon in the No. 2 spot and Indiana at No. 5. Michigan is slate No. 14, placing them near the upper end of a second tier that also includes USC (No. 13), Penn State (No. 17), Washington (No. 21), and Iowa (No. 22). It’s easy to surmise that fans would be disappointed if Michigan finished fifth in the conference.
In terms of offense, Connelly projects Michigan as the 20th-best unit nationally, which translates to sixth-best within the Big Ten. Defensively, his projections improve somewhat, ranking Michigan 13th nationally and placing them just behind Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 3), and Indiana (No. 6) within the conference. On special teams, however, his outlook is less favorable, predicting Michigan will have the second-worst unit in the Big Ten and 113th nationally.
The final major element of his model concerns record predictions, which account for schedule strength. Michigan’s schedule is among the most challenging in the country, a factor that does not bode well for a big win total. Connelly pegs Michigan at five conference victories, implying a 5-4 conference mark, and assigns them a mere 1.1 percent chance to reach 11 wins. He projects Michigan finishing sixth in the conference, behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Penn State, and Iowa, respectively.
In short, Connelly’s takeaway is that Michigan will be an above-average squad facing a brutal slate, a combination that could cap their overall record. While that assessment isn’t entirely implausible, I’m somewhat more bullish on Michigan’s prospects this fall. The offense is expected to take a meaningful step forward, and the defense remains stocked with talent. Special teams remain a wildcard, but I find it hard to believe Kerry Coombs’ unit will fall outside the top 100 in the country. Yes, the schedule is brutally tough, but this Michigan squad should be equipped to handle adversity better than last year. With a sharper offense, a stronger defense, and a more resilient mindset, I’m optimistic about what this team can accomplish in 2026.