​The second Wimbledon Ladies semifinal is now set, with Marta Kostyuk facing rising star Linda Noskova on Thursday afternoon local time. Kostyuk previously gave Noskova a clay-court lesson in Madrid, but the latest predictions and free betting picks favor Noskova to flip the script and win this match as a +115 underdog.
My match prediction: Noskova moneyline (+115 at Kalshi)
My best bet: Noskova moneyline (+115 at Kalshi)
Kostyuk defeated Noskova on clay in Madrid earlier this year, yet that head-to-head result holds little weight on grass. On clay, Kostyuk ran Noskova’s second serve into the ground, limiting her to a mere 22% win rate on that facet. On London’s faster grass, Noskova’s second-serve points won have surged to 60.1% this season. Noskova’s big game is well-suited to grass, where she averages 5.6 aces per match.
Given Kostyuk’s vulnerability on serve—she averages 4.25 double faults per match—Noskova’s improved serve could swing the match in her favor. Expect the Berlin champion to turn the tables and advance to the Wimbledon final in three grueling sets.
Take Linda Noskova on the moneyline at +115. The prediction markets currently imply a Noskova win probability of 46.5%, ignoring her clear grass-court edge. In reality, this match is essentially a dead heat that should be priced around -110, suggesting Noskova’s true win probability is closer to 52.4%. That discrepancy translates into a valuable 5.9% edge on the underdog, a value worth pursuing.
From a broader perspective, Noskova’s grass-court strengths are evident in her Dominance Rating, which sits at 1.31 this season, up from 1.09 in her career. Kostyuk’s numbers are 0.96 for her career and 1.19 this season. Noskova’s reliable 60.1% second-serve success on turf could prove enough to disrupt Kostyuk’s return game and deliver a profitable plus-money wager.
Match particulars:
Location: Centre Court, All England Lawn Tennis Club, London, England
Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
Time: 9:40 a.m. ET
Broadcast: ESPN
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