​The Formula 1 paddock loves a blockbuster transfer rumor, and for most of the past year—and especially at this moment—the prevailing storyline has been that Max Verstappen could walk away from Red Bull Racing. Yet Guenther Steiner, the former Haas team principal, has just injected a hefty dose of pragmatism into the chatter: even if Verstappen wanted out, where would he actually go? In an exclusive conversation with 247Bet, Steiner laid out the current state of the F1 driver market, explaining why a dramatic departure by the world champion seems virtually impossible in the near term. The problem isn’t a lack of talent among top drivers; it’s a scarcity of real estate at the peak of the grid.
Here is why Steiner believes Verstappen is effectively locked into his seat at Milton Keynes. If a driver of Verstappen’s caliber is going to leave a championship-winning operation, they need an immediate step up. But the teams capable of offering that kind of move have already closed their doors for the foreseeable future.
First, consider Ferrari. Maranello already has one of the most high-profile driver lineups in modern history. Charles Leclerc has just signed a long-term contract, and Lewis Hamilton is locked into a multi-year deal with Mercedes. There simply isn’t a physical seat available for Verstappen within Ferrari’s roster.
Then there’s Mercedes. In Brackley, Mercedes is fully committed to its new era. “Mercedes is pretty set at the moment with Kimi [Antonelli] and with George [Russell],” Steiner remarked. “They’ve got a solid pairing there. Bringing Max in would not provide him much more than he already has.” Beyond the individual seats, Steiner points to the broader reality: the financial considerations. Verstappen isn’t just a driver; he represents a generation of talent with one of the sport’s most expensive price tags. As Steiner was blunt in summation: “As much as we say money doesn’t matter, money always matters.”
With Ferrari and Mercedes effectively closed, the only plausible theoretical landing place for a disgruntled world champion would be McLaren. But from both competitive and political standpoints, Steiner questions why Verstappen would risk such a move. At Red Bull, Verstappen is the undisputed anchor of the operation. The entire engineering philosophy and team culture are built around his driving style and feedback, making him indispensable to the team’s performance.
Steiner argues that McLaren wouldn’t provide a meaningful improvement over Red Bull. So why would Verstappen leave a team where his voice is heard, where his influence is acknowledged, and where he holds a certain amount of power, for a place where he would be starting from scratch politically, and potentially fighting for leverage and visibility? The move would be a step into unfamiliar territory, with questions about whether he would enjoy the same level of control and the same immediate synergy with the engineers and operations that define his current success.
In short, while the transfer market often thrives on dramatic narratives and bold moves, the practical constraints around Verstappen’s situation—where to go, whether the teams want him, and whether the financial and organizational conditions would align with his ambitions—paint a far less glamorous picture than the headlines suggest. The paddock’s blockbuster plotline may still captivate fans, but Steiner’s analysis makes a compelling case that Verstappen’s seat at Red Bull is far more secure than the rumors imply, and that the exhaustive search for a viable, immediate exit ramp is effectively a dead end under current conditions.