​My Friday’s MLB best home run bets were duds, as Munetaka Murakami and Bryce Eldridge failed to go deep. Those misses dragged the season’s record for the MLB best home run bets to 16-55, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the day their home run props were suggested. While long-shot bets rarely deliver a clean slate, the overall record on home run props remains respectable when adjusted for the odds offered. Consequently, the season’s profit stands at $842 for anyone who has bet $100 on the MLB best home run bets at the listed odds.
Today’s MLB best home run bets showcase a switch-hitter in a favorable matchup and a ballpark that tends to boost homers, plus a left-handed slugger who mashes lefties and performs well on the road, facing a southpaw who has shown trouble against left-handed batters. The bet on over 0.5 home runs at +358 is offered by DraftKings Sportsbook. Last night, Elly De La Cruz hit his 15th home run of the season in 330 plate appearances. He has delivered 10 home runs in 166 plate appearances at home this year and five more in 116 at home against right-handed pitching. The switch-hitting shortstop also sports strong batted-ball metrics: among 254 qualified batters in 2026, De La Cruz ranks 33rd in barrels per plate appearance (8.9%), 24th in barrels per game events (14.8%), 12th in hard-hit rate (53.1%), tied for 33rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.1 mph), tied for eighth in maximum exit velocity (116.3 mph), and tied for 77th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.2%). His matchup and the ballpark factors are favorable for a homer tonight: Javier Assad has allowed 10 homers at a 1.60 HR/9 rate in 14 appearances (seven starts) this year across 56.1 innings, and he’s given up eight homers to 115 left-handed batters in 2026. Chicago’s bullpen has surrendered an MLB-high 1.48 HR/9 this season. The Great American Ball Park also supports power, with a homer-friendly park factor of 114, ranking among the top marks since 2025. With De La Cruz’s skill set and the favorable park, he shouldn’t squander a prime opportunity to add another homer to his 2026 total.
Matt Olson has produced power on the road and against left-handed pitching in 2026, a pattern that supports the over 0.5 home runs at +400 on FanDuel Sportsbook. While the lefty-vs-lefty matchup may not scream obvious strength at first glance, Olson has belted nine of his 25 homers in 2026 in 176 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He’s also hit seven homers in just 90 plate appearances against southpaws on the road. In contrast, Matthew Liberatore has surrendered 17 homers in 18 starts this year. The 26-year-old left-hander has yielded six homers to 94 left-handed batters, nine homers to 200 right-handed batters at home, and three homers to road hitters, creating a scenario where Olson’s power matchup could yield a homer. With the ballpark and Olson’s recent performance against left-handed pitching, this is a compelling bet on the left-handed slugger to connect tonight.