​IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect. Pictured: Bam Adebayo
We have another excellent NBA slate in front of us tonight, and I’ve been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I’ve locked in my favorite plays for the evening.Let’s get into my NBA picks and expert bets for Monday, October 26.If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google and download the Action Network app for more NBA picks and analysis!NBA Expert Bets for Monday, October 26GameTime (ET)Pick7 p.m.Spread7:30 p.m.Spread / TotalSpecific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.Hornets -2.5At its core, my handicap here essentially boils down to a simple math problem. When you look at the Wizards‘ offensive shot profile right now, they are relying far too heavily on a steady diet of mid-range jumpers.I have them projecting as an average team specifically because they are actively failing to exploit the mathematical edges required to consistently win in the modern NBA.While the Wizards’ offense looks totally fine on paper—boasting a 112 offensive rating through their first three games—that number is inflated by a matchup against the Bucks, who look like they are going to be historically easy to score on this year.On the flip side, Charlotte currently holds a miserable 101 offensive rating, but we know that number is going to positively regress.The Hornets will get their offense clicking eventually because their underlying process is just fundamentally sound. They are launching a ton of three-pointers on one end, and they are actively denying three-point attempts on the other.Meanwhile, the Wizards simply refuse to shoot from beyond the arc. When you are presented with a foundational mathematical edge of this magnitude, the smartest move is to back the team with the distinct coaching advantage.The Hornets are unquestionably the better-coached unit right now. When you pair superior coaching with a tactical advantage in shot selection, I fully expect Charlotte to take care of business, especially playing on their home floor.I’ve been higher on Charlotte against my own will throughout the preseason, and I just can’t seem to get away from them. My personal power ratings make this line Hornets -3.1, meaning we are extracting a crucial half-point of value at -2.5.If the market steams this number to a full 3, I’m out, but at 2.5, I will gladly lay the small chalk.Pick: Hornets -2.5Click here for our full Wizards vs Hornets betting preview!Heat -8.5This looks like the ultimate get-right spot for the Heat. We saw this line briefly pop at 7.5 in a few spots earlier today before DraftKings settled it at 8.5.While it’s undeniably frustrating to lose a point of closing line value off the opener, the fact that