​The projected cut line is set to loom large as Round 2 of the 2026 Open Championship gets underway on Friday, July 17 at Royal Birkdale, thanks to a handful of players who already find themselves on the brink of missing the weekend in golf’s final major of the year. Among those flirting with the projected cut are multiple major champions—Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark, and Brian Harman—who each opened with rounds that left them vulnerable to a weekend in the clubhouse. Each would be a surprising exit for different reasons: McIlroy is the two-time defending Masters champion, Spieth’s last major victory came back in 2017 on this very Royal Birkdale layout, Rose is long viewed as a local favorite after bursting onto the professional scene as a 17-year-old amateur here in 1998, Clark arrives on the heels of a U.S. Open title, and Harman is seeking to defend his Open crown from just three years ago.
The course’s conditions hold a paradox for players: dry weather and a forecast for light winds should create more scoring opportunities than the setup might previously imply, yet the fairways and greens remain firm and fast. That firmness will reward precision, while the treacherous rough and deep bunkers around Royal Birkdale will punish even minor misjudgments, elevating the tension around the cut line as play continues on Friday.
Here is a live snapshot of the projected cut line through Round 2 at the 2026 Open Championship, along with a look at which golfers may fall short of the 36-hole mark once Friday’s action wraps up on July 17:
– The current cut line after Round 1 stood at +1. Under this framework, any golfer at +1 or better would advance to the weekend at Royal Birkdale. Data Golf’s live model estimates a 29.6% chance that the cut line stays at +1, while the most probable scenario sits at +2 with a 41.8% likelihood. There is also an 18.7% probability that the cut line rises to +3 as the day unfolds.
Only the top 70 players (plus ties) on the leaderboard after Friday’s Round 2 will earn the right to continue to the weekend at the 2026 Open Championship.
Here are the notable positions and scores as of Friday’s action:
– Justin Rose: +5 (F)
– Rory McIlroy: +2 (F)
– Matt Fitzpatrick: +2 (F)
– Jordan Spieth: +3 (F)
– Wyndham Clark: +3 (F)
– Sam Burns: +3 (F)
– Jason Day: +3 (F)
– Patrick Reed: +2 (F)
– Brian Harman: +4 (F)
– Hideki Matsuyama: +2 (F)
– Adam Scott: +2 (F)
– Cameron Smith: +3 (F)
– Joaquin Niemann: +6 (F)
– Harris English: +3 (F)
– Padraig Harrington: +10 (F)
– Gary Woodland: +8 (F)
– Stewart Cink: +4 (F)
– David Duval: +3 (F)
The leaderboard reflects a mix of veteran major winners and current stars navigating a demanding layout as the wind stays comparatively calm and the greens stay firm. Early morning and late afternoon groups will face the most challenging conditions, while the mid-round waves may see more birdie opportunities as light dew evaporates and the course firms settle into its true test.
As the action progresses, the open question remains: which players can persevere through the day’s pressure, avoid costly mistakes, and secure their place in the weekend? Fans will watch closely as the 2026 Open Championship tests every ounce of nerve, strategy, and resilience, with the cut line serving as a sharp focal point around the field’s most critical juncture.