​The San Diego Padres still have not earned a series win this month. They struggled against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly last night, pushing across only a single run via Manny Machado’s homer in the second inning. After that, the offense managed just two more hits. Griffin Canning kept the Diamondbacks in check for the most part, but he did allow two runs, and that was more than enough for Arizona to prevail.
Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays visit San Diego, and the Padres approach the series with less momentum than their Canadian opponents. Toronto just defeated the San Francisco Giants and nearly no-hit them on Wednesday night, a strong indication that the Jays arrive hungry and confident. San Diego will be hoping to regain some offensive rhythm against Toronto and start the series on the right note.
Meanwhile, pitchers who pose challenges for the Padres look to continue their strong starts. Alek Manoah has not looked dominant since returning from injury. Despite Toronto’s decision to re-sign him, Bieber has not been able to translate that certainty into results this season. In his first three outings back, the right-hander posted a 9.00 ERA over 13 innings, accompanied by an inflated 2.08 WHIP. His latest outing against the Seattle Mariners was notably rough, yielding seven runs in four innings. The Padres will be hoping to capitalize on Bieber’s recent struggles and jump out to an opening-game victory.
On the Padres’ side, Seth Sears has started three times this season and shown improvement, though he still hasn’t been without trouble. His 4.70 ERA is heavily influenced by a rough outing against the Chicago Cubs last week, where he gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings. Sears bounced back quickly in his next appearance against the Los Angeles Dodgers, delivering five scoreless innings. He has limited familiarity with Toronto’s lineup, which could give him a slight edge in this matchup.
San Diego’s lineup has started to trend upward after a shaky stretch, though consistency remains a work in progress. They have plated 29 runs over their last eight games, averaging 3.63 per contest. If you remove the two shutout games, the offense actually averages 4.83 runs per contest during that span. To take advantage of Bieber tonight, the Padres will need their hitters to bring the same urgency and pace they showed earlier in the season and execute with runners in scoring position.
Manny Machado, the Padres’ third baseman, has historically performed well against Bieber. In 11 career at-bats, Machado has posted a .364 batting average and a 1.144 OPS against the right-hander. If Machado can carry that success into tonight’s game, it would be a major shot in the arm for San Diego and could kick-start a productive series at the plate.
On the mound, San Diego’s bullpen has been spared from excessive use recently. Last night, Yuki Matsui, Bradish Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta, and Adrian Morejon covered the final 4 1/3 innings, with Rodriguez delivering 1 1/3 frames. That workload leaves a few viable options for tonight’s game: Jhony Brito, Kyle Hart, Ron Marinaccio, and Mason Miller are all available. Brito looked solid in his 2026 debut on Tuesday, providing the Padres with a reliable bullpen option to bridge into late innings.
In short, tonight’s game will hinge on timely offense and efficient pitching. If San Diego can plate runs early, tighten up against Bieber, and avoid extended innings, they have a real opportunity to seize the series opener. The Padres will need to replicate the better stretches of their recent performances and translate them into a win to set the tone for the rest of the series.