​NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 30: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox looks on before the game against the New York Yankees in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) GettyAdley Rutschman of the Boston Red Sox is projected for a $9.1 million arbitration award. GettyAn expert on MLB salary arbitration projects the Red Sox Jarren Duran to walk away with a salary of $11.1 million in 2027, and according to at least one commentator, that figure will push Boston Red Sox to make a tough decision on the five-year veteran before the Nov. 20 deadline.That figure for 2027 comes after a career-worst season and sits atop a class of 17 arbitration-eligible players, the most in baseball, according to MLB Trade Rumors‘ arbitration analyst Matt Swartz.Duran earned $7.7 million in 2026 after Boston declined an $8 million club option and the sides avoided a hearing, according to Spotrac. The sports business site puts its own 2027 estimate for Duran at $10.5 million, close to the MLB Trade Rumors number. The 30-year-old batted .207 with a .266 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, 69 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 151 games. He struck out a team-high 165 times, a rate of once every 3.7 trips to the plate.That output produced a 76 OPS+ and 0.4 wins above replacement, a steep fall from 2024, when he posted 9.0 WAR, won All-Star Game MVP and finished eighth in AL MVP voting.BOSTON RED SOX — PROJECTED 2027 ARBITRATION SALARIES (17 PLAYERS)PlayerService TimeProjected SalaryTanner Houck5.100$4.1MMJohan Oviedo5.079$1.8MMAdley Rutschman5.000$9.1MMJarren Duran4.155$11.1MMEli White4.140$1.4MMKutter Crawford4.136$2.8MMConnor Wong4.079$2MMRomy González4.044$1.8MMTriston Casas4.032$1.7MMAndruw Monasterio3.099$1.6MMZack Kelly3.080$800KGreg Weissert3.079$1.2MMWilyer Abreu3.041$4.6MMErik Miller3.000$1.5MMJustin Slaten3.000$1.2MMJahmai Jones2.148$900KTyron Guerrero2.133$1.1MMSource: MLB Trade Rumors, “Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027” — mlbtraderumors.comJarren Duran Non-Tender Question for Boston Red Sox“$11.1M for Duran. Been in trade rumors for years but the non-tender conversation is gonna be had too. That said if he hits FA I feel like that’s around what he’d get from a team chasing the upside,” Play Tessie host Nat Gordon wrote in a post on X Friday.Gordon framed it as a topic for discussion, not a prediction, and his caveat undercuts the case: if free agency would pay Duran about the same for his upside, a non-tender hands that value away for nothing.“This is going to be a doozy of a non-tender deadline for the Red Sox, who have multiple calls to make,” Chris Cotillo of MassLive wrote Friday.A non-tender would save the cash and return nothing, according to Sports Illustrated, which sees $11.1 million as tough to defend after two straight down years and as a potential obstacle in trade talks.Boston Red Sox Trade Market and Non-