​I’m really hoping to track down a shirt just like the one Luinder Avila is wearing in the photo attached to this piece, in my size. If you happen to spot anything similar in 4XL or 5XL, please give me a heads-up—I’d be incredibly grateful.
Anyway, we’re here to talk baseball. Tonight the Royals visit the Orioles in Baltimore, with Luinder Avila set to start for Kansas City. His results since joining the rotation have been mixed at best, a fair assessment given the circumstances. He carries a 5.04 ERA, a figure that’s heavily influenced by a modest 6.2% walk-to-strikeout rate. He needs to punch out more hitters and issue fewer free passes as he works through the rotation. The curveball, which used to be his go-to pitch while climbing through the system, is now his fourth-most-used option out of five. His sinker and slider have been the only pitches he’s been able to throw with any meaningful effectiveness, yet he still struggles to locate them in the strike zone. When a hitter is chasing pitches, a pitcher can become streaky, and Avila is a prime example of that pattern right now. Even with stuff that can be plus, if a pitcher can’t command the strike zone, the results can get turbulent, and that’s what we’re seeing with him. To sustain a long career alongside teammates like Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, Avila will need to improve, and the simplest route may be to transition him to the bullpen, where timing and sequencing can be simplified. The Royals, though, already rely on Randy Dobnak as a bulk reliever, so Avila remains in the rotation for the moment.
On the other side, the Orioles are slated to go with Brandon Young tonight. I’ll be honest: I hadn’t heard of Young before today. He and Avila resemble each other in several key respects, though Young’s stuff isn’t quite as strong. Young works with a splitter instead of a changeup and has shown slightly better command of it in the strike zone, leading to more favorable chase results when hitters swing outside the zone. He leans more heavily on his four-seam fastball than Avila does. Despite the faster velocity and higher spin, Young’s fastball shows notable movement, which has helped keep hitters from squareting it up. Curiously, their expected wOBA (xwOBA) is identical, suggesting luck has perhaps favored Young at times. However, Young walks far fewer batters, which contributes to his better walk rate and overall performance.
Back to the Royals: Vinnie Pasquantino made his return to Kansas City less than a month after suffering a hamate bone injury. That injury usually keeps players out longer, but Pasquantino’s return was relatively swift—Vinnie being Vinnie. Strangely, he isn’t in tonight’s starting lineup. Salvador Perez is starting at first base, a downgrade defensively and offensively. Nick Loftin will be the designated hitter, and although he’s shown improvement over the last few days, this isn’t exactly a lineup move that the manager will feel compelled to prioritize. Overall, it’s a perplexing arrangement that doesn’t necessarily add up from a strategic standpoint.
In any case, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows, and tonight’s matchup offers plenty to watch. Avila’s command will be under the spotlight, particularly his ability to locate his sinker and slider for consistent strike-zone presence. Young will try to expand the zone with his splitter and fastball, hoping to generate enough weak contact and chase appeals to keep the Orioles in the game. And on the Royals’ side, the lineup’s balance will continue to evolve as Pasquantino returns and Perez anchors the infield, even if the defensive alignment isn’t ideal in this particular configuration. Here’s hoping for competitive at-bats, crisp pitching sequences, and a clear path toward better results for both teams as the season progresses. Baseball fans, this is what we love about the game—small adjustments, big moments, and a night full of action in Baltimore.