​CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 22: Head coach Bill Belichick of the North Carolina Tar Heels smiles during warmups prior to their game against the Duke Blue Devils at Kenan Memorial Stadium on November 22, 2025 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Jaylynn Nash/Getty Images) | Getty Images When the UNC Tar Heels moved on from one septuagenarian in MackBrown I don’t think many around college football thought another would be his replacement. People especially weren’t setting their sights on BillBelichick. And yet the NFL’s six-time Super Bowl winning head coach, with eight rings overall, is the head man in Chapel Hill. Year one under Belichick went about as well as his final season with the NFL’s New England Patriots. In ‘23 Belichick and the Pats finished 4-13. In ‘25 the UNC Tar Heels finished 4-8 in Belichick’s first season at the college level since his playing days at Wesleyan (CT) in the 70’s. Now let’s put the Heels through The Goal, our 2026 Summer Scheming analysis system.ThroughputAcquisition: The Tar Heels last three freshman classes (two under Belichick) put UNC at 27th in recruiting. They’re 40th in the transfer portal which puts them at 33rd overall. Development: Over the past two draft classes the Heels have put 10 players into the NFL. That puts UNC below Duke, Virginia Tech and even Boston College in producing pro talent. Yet they’re still ahead of FSU and Pitt in that regard. Deployment: This preseason Bill Connelly’s SP+ has UNC ranked 54th in overall SP+. The Heels offense is 80th, the defense is 35th, and the kicking game is 32nd. BottleneckThe bottleneck to success at UNC might be the lack of alignment that took place in the Belichick hiring process. Old AD BubbaCunningham is out and the new AD, SteveNewmark, is a NASCAR guy and Chapel Hill native. Newmark has been on campus for a year learning the ropes after a run as an executive for RFK Racing. New AD hires often put incumbent football coaches on the hot seat and this will likely be the case at UNC.Belichick’s hiring, however, wasn’t a Cunningham production. That was Chancellor Lee Roberts’ hire and the $50M contract is on the shoulders of someone besides the outgoing AD. The Heels strength of schedule is 20th of 138 in FBS per CFB News. UNC starts the year off against TCU in Ireland before an off week. The Tar Heels will face Clemson, Duke, UConn and UVA on the road and Notre Dame, Miami, Louisville and NC State at home. Both rivals; plus Miami, ND, and Clemson as well as a neutral site game is not looking like a lot of easy wins in ‘26. InventoryThe inventory space includes returning production per Bill Connelly, the On3 top-100 list and the Athlon preseason All-Conference Team honorees. UNC is ranked 103rd in returning production. They return 44% from a year ago. They don’t have any players on the On3 top-100 but they do have one All-ACC player per Athlon.UNC will have a new starting QB in 2026. GioLopez is out, and there ar