​If you had told me at the start of the season that the Nationals would sit at 48-49 at the All-Star break, I would have signed on the dotted line without hesitation. Don’t misread me: this has been a successful first half given the expectations, and there have been plenty of standout performances across the lineup and even in the rotation. Yet it could have been even better with a legitimate bullpen. This Nationals bullpen has, quite frankly, been the ultimate vibe killer this season. During yesterday’s broadcast, Kevin Frandsen urged fans to rise up and back their team in the eighth inning. No slight to Frandsen intended, but I suspect the reason Nats fans didn’t respond is that they anticipated what was coming. All their fears were vindicated as the bullpen blew another game.
Right now, the MLB record for blown saves in a season sits at 37, and I don’t think that mark will stand for long. At the All-Star break, Washington sits at 27 blown saves. I’ve witnessed plenty of rough bullpens over the years, yet I’ve never seen one derail games in the ninth inning quite like this group. The Nats have scored the most runs in baseball, yet they sit below .500. That juxtaposition is a jaw-dropping indictment of the pitching staff, and, more precisely, of the bullpen. The rotation, while not elite, has been solid, especially in recent months. Foster Griffin and Cade Cavalli have formed a solid 1-2 at the top of the rotation, and even Zack Littell has posted a 3.52 ERA since May 1, with Miles Mikolas at 4.43—far from perfect, but not terrible for a five-man group. At this moment, the bullpen stands as the single most important reason they aren’t a playoff team.
There are countless individual games you can point to and ask, what if they had won that one? If the Nats had taken the Giants game, and if they could have salvaged even three of the six losses they blew to the Phillies and Yankees, the conversation around this team would look dramatically different right now. There are roughly 10 to 12 truly brutal meltdowns, and even reclaiming six of them would likely place this club squarely in the wild-card race.
Whether the next move comes at the trade deadline or in the offseason, it’s clear that Paul Toboni needs to allocate substantial resources to the bullpen. Those resources could be financial or in the form of prospect capital, but this is one area that requires a real, tangible upgrade for 2027. Toboni has attempted to assemble a bullpen with minimal resource expenditure, hoping to uncover undervalued arms. The evidence suggests that approach hasn’t paid off: he’s shown difficulty in identifying those hidden gems and can’t replicate the moneyball success the Rays have enjoyed in their bullpen strategy. Given that reality, he should reassess and acknowledge that the bullpen is a sector that demands bold, high-impact moves.
The Nationals have already blown 27 saves, while the league average hovers around 13 or 14. Imagine if they had only blown 13 saves. Yes, not every blown save is equal for search optimization, but the underlying math is clear: trimming even a handful of these miscues would dramatically alter the team’s trajectory, morale, and postseason odds as the season progresses.