​Katie Stratman-Imagn Images.This overlooked player will make or break Cubs’ chances vs. Padres in NL Wild Card appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.The Chicago Cubs won five of six regular-season games against the San Diego Padres. That edge means little when the NL Wild Card Series opens Tuesday at Petco Park. Last year’s Wild Card meeting went three games, with only one run separating them overall. The Padres host with Michael King starting Game 1 and their bullpen rested. The Cubs will counter with Matthew Boyd and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had 45 homers and 41 steals in the 2026 season. Yet Nico Hoerner could prove just as consequential. The second baseman is easy to overlook, but this series will demand more than power if the Cubs want to advance to the NLDS.Why Nico Hoerner is the Cubs’ X-factorHoerner hardly resembles a postseason centerpiece. He finished the regular season batting .263 with eight homers and a .666 OPS. That follows a .297 average in 2025. Yet he collected 165 hits, drove in 72 runs and stole 23 bases in 2026. He struck out 58 times in 689 plate appearances. Those numbers reflect value even when his offense falls short of last year’s standard. Against the Padres, his contact gives the Cubs chances without a homer.The challenge does not end when King leaves. He posted a 3.21 ERA over 185 innings, and the Padres have one of baseball’s strongest bullpens waiting behind him. San Diego can use Adrian Morejon to bridge the gap to Mason Miller, who recorded 38 saves with a 1.67 ERA. That leaves little room for a late comeback. The Cubs need Hoerner to extend innings from his projected sixth spot and give the lower order more chances to score.Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)He has already shown what that can look like against this opponent. On April 28 at Petco Park, Hoerner broke a 2-2 tie with a two-run double in the sixth inning. That hit came with two outs and two runners aboard. His double helped secure an 8-3 win. His go-ahead single against the Miami Marlins on September 24 helped the Cubs clinch. Both hits show he can deliver without a homer.Defense offers another path. He is a two-time Gold Glove second baseman on a Cubs team that set Statcast-era records with 72 Outs Above Average and 70 Fielding Run Value this season. The Padres’ offense has been among baseball’s best since September began. A clean double play could matter as much as an RBI when San Diego sends Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado to the plate.Hoerner still carries risk. His limited power means contact alone will not solve everything, and a .666 OPS does not make him the safest offensive bet. But he hit .419 across Chicago’s eight playoff games last year, including a series win over the Padres. The Cubs need that version in San Diego to reach base, advance runners and disrupt the Padres’ bullpen plan.Crow-Armstrong can supply the spectacle. Hoerner can supply the small advantage