Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight champions Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje will clash TONIGHT (Sun., June 14, 2026) on the White House South Lawn from Washington, D.C., for UFC Freedom 250.. Topuria was obviously gifted in his first couple UFC fights, but I don’t think anybody fully anticipated his greatness. Topuria’s last three wins — consecutive knockouts versus Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira — make up arguably the best trio of victories in the history of the sport. Initially, there were cries that Topuria was just beating up older opponents, yet each of those legends has scored at least one great victory after their loss to “El Matador.”. Advertisement. Advertisement. Advertisement. Perhaps he’s just that damn good?. Gaethje, meanwhile, should never be counted out despite his status as a significant betting underdog. “The Highlight” is more comfortable in a bloody war of attrition than just about anyone else. He thrives in gritty, ugly exchanges, which is not a situation we’ve seen Topuria in previously. It may not be the Lightweight title fight fans dreamed of, but some interesting questions are still being asked.. Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:. Ilia Topuria victory: -560. Ilia Topuria via TKO/KO/DQ: -210. Ilia Topuria via submission: +600. Ilia Topuria via decision: +1200. Justin Gaethje victory: +370. Justin Gaethje via TKO/KO/DQ: +550. Justin Gaethje via submission: +3500. Justin Gaethje via decision: +150o. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Topuria joined UFC’s roster as a former Greco-Roman wrestler with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Most of his early wins come via submission, but Topuria quickly became known for his boxing inside the Octagon. He throws incredibly crisp, powerful combinations both leading and countering, and his eyes are among the best in the sport.. Advertisement. Advertisement. Advertisement. Topuria doesn’t do anything overly complicated on the feet, but he only has to line up one clean right hand to end the fight.. It feels like there are many avenues to victory for Topuria here. Could he conceivably wrestle Gaethje to the floor and submit him? It’s possible. Odds are, however, that both Topuria and Gaethje will be gunning for the knockout here, so somebody hitting the canvas at the end of a shootout is most likely. Given Topuria’s advantages in speed and power, there’s a reason the odds favor him so strongly to win that kind of slugfest.. Does the Spanish champion have to make any major adjustment for his opponent? Honestly, I would just like to see Topuria actively working to check and counter low kicks. Beyond that, Topuria simply has to keep his defense tight and let exchanges play out, as he should have a massive boxing advantage here.. Gaethje rose to prominence as a wild brawler, a man who sprinted into exchanges in an attempt to exhaust both his opponent and himself. Over the years, he developed his footwork and style quite a bit, allowing him to operate as a forward mauler or savvy counter puncher. Either way, his thudding low kick remains a staple, and that weapon is likely his best path to some kind of success here.. Advertisement. Advertisement. Advertisement. Everyone tries to kick Topuria’s lead leg, of course. That’s the first thing you do against a sharp boxer, as their stance is usually somewhat vulnerable to low kicks. Topuria’s athleticism and distance management are excellent, however, so it’s not so simple as blasting a bunch of naked calf kicks and hoping for the best — that kind of approach would see Gaethje chinned early. Instead, Gaethje has to show his craft in setting up the low kick. I would love to see him mix other kicks into his attack if only to help land on the calf — he knocked out Dustin Poirier with a high kick after all (re-live that here)!. In addition, I’d love to see Gaethje try to use his clinch offense. Not only could he bring back the low kick from the clinch he used so well in PFL, but Gaethje could also try to wear on Topuria from close quarters. By making it ugly and hanging on the former Featherweight, Gaethje could slow his opponent’s hands and level the playing field a bit.. Gaethje has a path to victory. He’s a great fighter with lots of championship experience and the kind of self-belief that can produce a great win. An upset is not impossible.. Advertisement. Advertisement. Advertisement. It’s also not likely.. Topuria is very possibly the best fighter in the world right now, and he’s still shy of 30 years old. Gaethje is eight years older and has been in literally dozens of brutal wars. He looked like an athlete in decline against Paddy Pimblett six months ago. There are just so many advantages — youth, boxing, momentum, jiu-jitsu, power — stacking up on the side of Topuria that it would feel irresponsible not to pick him.. Gaethje will try his best to thread the needle, but the margin for error has never been smaller for “The Highlight.”