​The start of the college football season is approaching, and ESPN has released its initial FPI rankings.FPI, a predictive metric, ranks every FBS team ahead of the season and updates as the season goes on.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIt also serves as a way to handicap the American Conference title race, which is expected to be as wide open as any title race in 2026. Almost all of the projected top teams in the American either had major turnover or have significant questions. Memphis, South Florida, Tulane and North Texas have new coaches after their previous head coaches left for power conference schools.Here’s a look at where FPI projects Memphis to finish in the American in 2026.1 / 19The new west side tower is seen within Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium during a media tour in Memphis, Tenn., on July 7, 2026.(Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal)Tulane (56 overall)East Carolina (68 overall)Navy (69 overall)South Florida (73 overall)Memphis (74 overall)UTSA (88 overall)Army (89 overall)North Texas (90 overall)Temple (102 overall)Tulsa (105 overall)Florida Atlantic (115 overall)Rice (122 overall)Charlotte (126 overall)UAB (128 overall)Tulane has a healthy lead, but there are uncertainties. Like almost every team at the Group of Six level, the Green Wave have dealt with major roster turnover. They also lost coach Jon Sumrall to Florida and replaced him with former Southern Miss coach Will Hall.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFPI predicts Navy as the third-best team in the conference, but the Midshipmen have been at the top of a number of preseason projections and are the betting favorites to win the American.It’s probably fitting that Memphis and South Florida are bunched together, given they’re the only two schools that are expected to be at full revenue sharing in the conference and in the Group of Six as a whole. Both have new coaches (Charles Huff and Brian Hartline, respectively) and almost completely new rosters but have as much talent as anyone in the conference.Boise State (No. 50) and UNLV (No. 58) are the two highest-ranked Group of Six teams. Memphis will travel to face both of them in 2026, meeting the Rebels on Aug. 29 and the Broncos on Sept. 12.Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: What ESPN FPI says about Memphis football’s American Conference title hopes