​The MLB Draft is set to unfold this weekend in Philadelphia, and a flurry of mock drafts are circulating, each offering predictions about who will claim the Pirates’ first-round pick. With the Pittsburgh Pirates holding the fifth overall selection, opinions on their target are varied, reflecting different philosophies about how the franchise should bolster its roster.
Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com envisions the Pirates addressing a long-standing need by selecting a top catcher from the college ranks—Vahn Lackey of Georgia Tech. Mayo notes that in recent drafts the Pirates have picked high-caliber, high school position players and pitchers, such as Konnor Griffin and Seth Hernandez. If the team chooses to continue that trend, Mayo mentions hitters like Eric Booth Jr. or Gio Rojas as possible options, but suggests that passing on the ultra-athletic Lackey, who owns a 1.265 OPS, 15 home runs, and 14 steals, would be difficult. Lackey’s athleticism and dual-skill potential as a college product could position him as a near-ready contributor for Pittsburgh, making him an appealing fifth-overall fit for a franchise seeking immediate impact in the catching department.
Keith Law of The Athletic, by contrast, leans toward adding pitching depth with a college arm, highlighting Jackson Flora from UC Santa Barbara as his top projection for the Pirates. Flora’s season saw him set school records for strikeouts, underscoring his upside as a pitching prospect. Law also points out that the Pirates are a team that has historically swung for big, high-upside bets in drafts, a pattern that could continue at the fifth pick. He mentions that while the top three names might entice the Pirates, someone like Flora could present a compelling path if one of the top arms slides to five. Law stresses that the Pirates’ track record of strong returns on aggressive selections makes another high-risk, high-reward choice plausible.
Both ESPN and Bleacher Report have the Pirates favoring one of the top high school talents in the draft. Jacob Lombard, a shortstop from Gulliver Prep in Florida, has surged on several mock boards. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel officially projects Lombard to the Pirates. McDaniel emphasizes that the Pirates, operating with a lower payroll yet playoff ambitions, face a choice between college talent and the dynamic upside offered by top high school players. He notes that the college group available is rich but may not offer enough to pry Pittsburgh away from the market’s best overall talent, suggesting Lombard could be the type of player the Pirates would target if their scouting reports indicate a strong development trajectory with a potential for contact improvements or swing refinements. McDaniel also compares Lombard’s ceiling to a player like Konnor Griffin, though with a profile that highlights greater athletic upside.
Sports Illustrated’s Ryan Phillips adds to the conversation with his own projection, contributing to the broader SEO-driven chatter surrounding the Pirates’ pick. While his exact reasoning aligns with the surrounding sentiment about the top talent in the class, Phillips’ analysis reinforces the sense that the fifth overall choice could come from a group of elite high school position players, or an exciting college arm with late-blooming projection. The ongoing thread through these projections is the Pirates’ willingness to chase upside, whether through a polished collegiate catcher, a power-armed college pitcher, or a top-tier high school athlete who could become an impact contributor within a few years.
As the draft nears, the discussion centers on where the Pirates’ value lies at No. 5: a premium, college-ready catcher in Lackey who could immediately strengthen the defense and game-calling behind the plate; a high-upside college pitcher like Flora who could anchor or augment a future rotation; or a top-tier high school talent such as Lombard who could be charted for long-term development into a core piece. Each path carries its own set of risks and rewards, and the Pirates’ front office will need to weigh immediate organizational needs against the potential for long-term impact.
In the end, the fifth pick represents a strategic crossroad for Pittsburgh. With multiple credible voices weighing different directions—catcher-focused upside from the college ranks, a college pitching project with standout strikeout numbers, or a blue-chip high school talent—the decision will reflect the Pirates’ broader philosophy: prioritize immediate usefulness or invest in high-upside talent that could redefine the franchise down the road. Regardless of the route chosen, the 2024 Draft in Philadelphia promises to shape the Pirates’ competitive arc for years to come.