​The Anaheim Ducks chose to match the Philadelphia Flyers’ sizable offer sheet for Leo Carlsson on Thursday, July 9, keeping the 21-year-old rising star in Anaheim. By doing so, the Flyers retain four of the first-round picks they would have surrendered if the Ducks hadn’t matched, while Carlsson himself remains under contract with the Ducks, a development that should shape the team’s future for years to come. Carlsson had been hopeful that Anaheim would match the offer sheet, despite having signed a five-year, $90 million deal. “It was kind of an offer that 99 percent of everyone would sign,” Carlsson said. “It changed my family and all, too. … I always wanted to be here, too. I really hoped they would match.”
So what are the implications of the Ducks’ decision to match? Here are the potential winners and losers as the decision unfolds. The contract details are significant. Ducks owners Henry and Susan Samueli now owe a signing bonus of nearly $20 million under the terms of the offer sheet, and the agreement could affect the team’s salary cap situation moving forward. On the other hand, the Ducks are building around Carlsson, who was the 2023 No. 2 overall pick, and not matching the offer might have delayed their progress by forcing them to search for another player with comparable upside. If Anaheim hadn’t matched, the presumed late first-round picks they would have had to surrender would have been far less valuable than the young center they already possess, and the draft’s inherent uncertainty—relying on the development of 18-year-olds—would have added another layer of risk.
Carlsson’s status remains that of a premier asset for the Ducks. The agreement makes him the highest-paid player in the NHL by average annual value, with an $18 million AAV, a substantial jump from his entry-level pay of $950,000 per year. He will be an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of the deal, but general manager Pat Verbeek believes Carlsson will continue his trajectory toward becoming an elite player. Carlsson posted 67 points in his third season, a mark that contributed to the decision to match the offer. There is speculation about how far the team’s long-term ceiling could rise if Carlsson continues on his current trajectory, and how it might relate to the future earnings of other top-caliber players.
The broader context includes thoughts about players who could follow similar paths in the coming years. For instance, the potential for future signatures around the league includes players like Connor Bedard, who is currently dealing with an injury but will need a new contract for the 2026-27 season. The structure of Carlsson’s deal—an $18 million cap hit with a lengthy term—could influence how other teams approach similar negotiations, especially in a league where the salary cap continues to rise and salaries escalate accordingly.
The offer sheet, and the Ducks’ choice to match, also highlights the tension around restricted free agents and the degree to which teams might pursue contested negotiations. Some executives may contend that the offer sheet represents an extraordinary circumstance, which could be used to justify higher bids for players who are already in restricted free-agent status. Others may push back, arguing that a repeat of such offers would destabilize the market and force teams to lock up players earlier to avoid being baited into a response that carries significant cap implications.
Looking ahead, the question remains how the Ducks will navigate the financial landscape with Carlsson under an eight- to ten-figure average annual value contract. The team’s ability to manage the cap, balance other roster needs, and maintain competitiveness will determine whether the decision to match continues to pay dividends or presents new challenges in the coming seasons. For Carlsson, the immediate future is clear: he remains a cornerstone of Anaheim’s plans and a central figure in the organization’s strategy to contend in the near term, with the potential to redefine his impact as he matures and progresses toward elite status.