World Cup 2026: Knockout round scenarios for France, Norway, and Group I

Both France and Norway won their opening two matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
As such, both teams are through to the Round of 32, but there is the small matter of determining the winner of Group I.
That can happen today in the final day of matches for France, Norway, Senegal, and Iraq.
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Here are the scenarios in Group I ahead of the final matches in group play at the 2026 World Cup.
Here are the standings in Group I after the two matches scheduled for Monday, June 22.

Team
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Points
France
2
0
0
6
1
+5
6
Norway
2
0
0
7
3
+4
6
Senegal
0
0
2
3
6
-3
0
Iraq
0
0
2
1
7
-6
0

Here is the schedule for the remaining matches in Group I play. All times listed are Eastern.
Monday, June 22
France 3, Iraq 1Norway 3, Senegal 2
Friday, June 26
Norway vs. France, 3:00 p.m.Senegal vs. Iraq, 3:00 p.m.
Here are the scenarios ahead of the final day of matches, set for June 26. These scenarios involve automatic qualification for the Round of 32 as one of the top two teams in the group. Teams can still advance as a third-place team, and for more on those standings we have you covered here. In addition, teams that are “eliminated” are guaranteed to finish fourth in their group.
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While other groups involve more complex scenarios, things are rather straightforward in Group I.
France wins Group I, and books a match against a third-place team from Group C, D, F, G, or H in the Round of 32, with a win or draw against Norway. With a loss to Norway, France will finish second in the group, and play the second-place team from Group E in the Round of 32.
Norway must win against France to win Group I. A loss or draw against France means Norway finishes second in the group.
Senegal will be eliminated with a loss to Iraq.
Iraq will be eliminated with a draw or loss against Senegal.
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Now we get to the tiebreaker scenarios that come into play with Group I.
Here is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year. If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.
In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.
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If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.
If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.
That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams.
That leads us to why Norway nor France can clinch the group on Monday. With those two teams playing each other in the final set of matches, there is still a path for both teams to win the group. Let’s use this hypothetical: Norway beats Senegal, but Iraq shocks the world and beats France. In that scenario Norway would have six points, and both Iraq and France would have three. Iraq would own the tiebreaker over France due to the head-to-head win.
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But then in the final set of matches, France beats Norway, and Senegal beats Iraq. France and Norway would each have six points, but France would win the group because of the head-to-head tiebreaker with Norway given the win over them.
That is why the winner of Group I very likely comes down to the final set of matches.
Also, at the moment Norway leads the group ahead of France, due to goal differential.
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