World Cup 2026: What are the knockout round scenarios for Group G?

Group play matches continue at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Some teams have already booked a spot in the Round of 32, such as Mexico and the United States. Other teams are hoping to join them in the knockout round over the next few days.
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Here is the state of play in Group G ahead of the final day of matches in group play for these four teams.
Here are the standings in Group G, following Egypt-New Zealand on June 21:

Team
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Points
Egypt
1
1
0
4
2
+2
4
Iran
0
2
0
2
2
0
2
Belgium
0
2
0
1
1
0
2
New Zealand
0
1
1
3
5
-2
1

Friday is the final day of matches in Group G
Sunday, June 21
Belgium 0, Iran 0Egypt 3, New Zealand 1
Friday, June 26
New Zealand vs. Belgium, 11:00 p.m.Egypt vs. Iran, 11:00 p.m.
Here are the scenarios ahead of the final day of matches in Group G, set for June 26. These scenarios involve automatic qualification for the Round of 32 as one of the top two teams in the group. Teams can still advance as a third-place team, and for more on those standings we have you covered here. In addition, teams that are “eliminated” are guaranteed to finish fourth in their group.
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Things are rather … complex in Group G. And as we will see in a moment, Egypt’s current goal differential of +2 looms large as we start thinking about tiebreakers.
Egypt will win Group G, and clinch a match against a third-place team from Group A, E, H, I, or J in the Round of 32, with a win against Iran. They will also finish first in the group with a draw against Iran, provided Belgium does not beat New Zealand by three or more goals (a Belgian win of three or more goals would clinch a tiebreaker for Belgium, and we will outline the tiebreakers in a moment). Egypt also wins Group G with a draw with Iran, a Belgian win over New Zealand by two goals, and Egypt wins the subsequent tiebreakers. Note, however, that Belgium is ranked higher than Egypt in the FIFA World Rankings, which is the last tiebreaker.
Egypt will finish second in Group G, and book a match against a second-place team from Group D, if they draw with Iran, and Belgium defeats New Zealand by three or more goals. They also finish second with a draw with Iran, a Belgian win over New Zealand by two goals, and then Belgium wins the tiebreakers, remembering that Belgium is ranked higher than Egypt in the FIFA World Rankings, the final tiebreaker.
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Finally, Egypt finishes second with a loss against Iran, coupled with a Belgium loss or draw with New Zealand.
Iran can win Group G, they can advance as the second-place team in Group G, and they can even be eliminated.
With a win against Egypt, and a Belgium loss or draw to New Zealand, Iran wins the group. They also win Group G with a win against Egypt, a Belgium win against New Zealand, and then a win against Belgium in the tiebreakers.
Iran finishes second in the group with a win against Egypt, a Belgium win against New Zealand, and then Belgium wins the tiebreakers. Note that Belgium is ranked ahead of Iran in the FIFA World Rankings, the final tiebreaker. Iran also finishes second if both matches end in a draw, and Iran wins the tiebreakers against Belgium.
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On the flip side of the coin, Iran is eliminated with a loss to Egypt, a Belgium loss to New Zealand, and then a loss to Belgium in the tiebreakers. They are also eliminated if they lose to Egypt by three or more goals, and New Zealand draws with Belgium. Finally, if they lose to Egypt by two goals, New Zealand draws with Belgium, and New Zealand wins the tiebreakers, then Iran is eliminated.
Similar to Iran, Belgium can win the group, finish second in the group, or even be eliminated.
The Red Devils will win Group G if they beat New Zealand by three or more goals, and Egypt draws with Iran. They also win Group G if they beat New Zealand by two goals, Egypt draws with Iran, and Belgium beats Egypt on tiebreakers. Belgium enjoys a higher ranking than Egypt in the FIFA World Rankings, the final tiebreaker. Belgium also wins Group G with a win over New Zealand, an Iran win over Egypt, and a win over Iran on the tiebreakers.
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Belgium clinches second in the group with a win over New Zealand, and an Iran loss to Egypt. They also finish second in the group with a one-goal win over New Zealand, and a draw between Egypt and Iran. Belgium also finishes second with a two-goal win, a draw between Egypt and Iran, and a subsequent loss to Egypt in the tiebreakers, most likely overall goals scored or team conduct score. They also finish second with a win over New Zealand, an Iran win over Egypt, and a loss to Iran on the tiebreakers.
Belgium also finishes second with a draw, if Egypt beats Iran.
Finally, a draw in both matches and a win over Iran in the tiebreakers clinches second for Belgium.
Belgium can be eliminated in two ways. A loss to New Zealand and an Iran win or draw knocks out the Red Devils. In addition, a loss to New Zealand, an Egypt win against Iran, and then a loss to Iran in the tiebreakers eliminates Belgium.
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New Zealand finishes second in Group G with a win over Belgium and an Iran loss or draw against Egypt.
New Zealand will be eliminated with a loss. They will also be eliminated with a draw against Belgium, if Iran wins against Egypt, draws against Egypt, or loses by just one goal. They will also be eliminated with a draw against Belgium and a two-goal loss by Iran, provided Iran then wins the tiebreakers. Of note, Iran is ranked ahead of New Zealand in the FIFA World Rankings, the final tiebreaker.
Speaking of tiebreakers …
Here is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year.
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If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.
In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.
If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.
If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.
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That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams.
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