​After 96 games, the World Cup has whittled down to eight nations, a blend of traditional powerhouses, emerging programs, and teams that have recently shown reliability. Here’s a breakdown of the octet. Four of the remaining teams are former champions (Argentina, England, France, Spain), while the other four are chasing what would be the second new winner of this century, a distinction Spain already claimed in 2010. For the third consecutive World Cup, more than half of the quarterfinalists hail from Europe. CONMEBOL, for the first time since 2002 when Brazil lifted the trophy, has only one representative in the quarterfinals. Africa, meanwhile, has consecutive World Cup quarterfinal appearances for the first time, and Morocco is the first African nation to reach two World Cup quarterfinals. Four of the eight teams are repeat quarterfinalists from four years ago. France has reached four straight quarterfinals, the longest active streak. England has made it to three consecutive quarterfinals, while Argentina and Morocco are back for a second straight World Cup.
With only eight teams left to rank, there’s no need for a tiered system here. I’ve laid out a straightforward order based on how likely I think each squad is to win it, weighing current quality and the road still ahead.
In the World Cup power rankings, it’s time for the quarterfinals and every remaining squad is a contender. I considered moving France down a notch or two for a narrow 1-0 win over Paraguay via a penalty, but none of the other top-tier teams recorded particularly convincing victories, so France retains the top spot. In the Round of 16, France wasn’t seriously threatened, controlling 75 percent of possession and outshooting Paraguay 15 to 5. Although generating only 0.7 non-penalty expected goals isn’t ideal, the upside is that none of the other quarterfinalists describe themselves as defensively as Paraguay did. I’m curious how France will cope against a team that can control the midfield more effectively, like Spain, yet I still trust their talented front four to figure things out. France could still easily score three goals against anyone, and I’m not as confident saying that about any other team.
Spain remains in second place after needing a stoppage-time goal to beat Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16. Despite posting their lowest possession total of the tournament (55 percent) against Portugal, Spain created more chances (1.7 xG to 0.6). The Spanish have been the only side yet to concede a goal in this tournament. They’ve allowed 29 shots, the second-fewest among knockout-stage teams, and they’ve faced the lowest shot quality in the tournament at 0.05 xG per shot, well below the overall average. That defense, anchored by an excellent press, compelled me to consider Spain for the top spot, but I’m not fully convinced by the attack yet. Spain ranks second in shots among the quarterfinalists, yet seventh in average shot quality. The offense has been a touch more dynamic in terms of narrative and metrics, but the numbers suggest there’s still room for improvement before I’d declare them the most dangerous team remaining.