​With the Round of 32 finished, it’s time to power-rank the remaining teams for the 2026 World Cup. As always, my two main criteria are 1) how good each team has looked, and 2) how far they can realistically go given the bracket ahead. There’s a familiar top tier at the top, and several teams have shifted up or down, so here we go.
Tier 1: World Cup title favorites
I’d still be surprised if a team from this group doesn’t lift the trophy, but I’ve moved one country down a tier, narrowing this list to three.
1. France
The 2022 runner-up is the first side to score three goals in five straight World Cup games, and it’s hard to envision another team stopping that pattern. France leads the tournament with 13 goals and tops the field in shot quality (0.13 xG per shot). Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise are both playing at a Golden Ball level, and the reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé is also on the frontline. France has the talent and depth to win its second World Cup trophy in eight years.
The bracket has opened nicely for France, which now faces Paraguay in the Round of 16 instead of Germany. My only hesitation is that the defense and midfield haven’t been as rigid as in previous tournaments, but that trade-off for a more expansive style has paid off so far.
2. Spain
Spain began to resemble its dominant self with a 3-0 rout of Austria in the Round of 32, as Lamine Yamal played 85 minutes and became the youngest player ever to reach double-digit one-on-ones and double-digit penalty-area touches in a World Cup match. Spain needs Nico Williams back at full strength to balance the left flank, but the attack is clicking. The defense has been superb, with only Mexico managing to break through and Spain having conceded the fewest shots (19) and the lowest xG against (0.9). Much of that is due to Spain’s tournament-leading 68% possession, which bodes well going forward. The one caveat is Spain’s potential path, which could include a semifinal against France.
3. Argentina
Argentina drops two spots after needing extra time to beat Cape Verde. Lionel Messi and his teammates were still fairly dominant, but there is a lingering concern about whether they’ve fully put opponents away. Overall, Argentina has been solid, posting over two expected goals in each of the last three games while conceding less than one expected goal in all four matches. The defending champions also benefit from a favorable Round of 16 draw, up against Egypt as a big favorite, and the general expectation remains high that they know what it takes to win it all.