World Cup Seeding Rules Designed to Leave Doubt Until the Final Whistle

The U.S. Men’s National Team clinched its spot in the World Cup knockout stage with a game to spare. But thanks to the seeding formula FIFA implemented for its first 48-team field, the USMNT won’t know its round-of-32 opponent for sure until near the end of group stage play. For now, American fans will have to live with the roughly 99.5% probability that Bosnia and Herzegovina awaits in San Francisco on July 6.
On Sunday, the 32 remaining teams will include the winners and runners-up from each of the 12 groups, plus the eight best third-place finishers based on numerous tiebreakers. The order of the tiebreakers is: total points, goal differential, goals scored, fewer cards and finally, FIFA world ranking. That classification is critical for remaining in the tournament, but entirely meaningless when it comes to determining the round-of-32 matchups.
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While group winners all receive some advantage for winning their group, the top-placing group winner doesn’t necessarily get the lowest-qualifying third-place team. Instead, winners of eight predetermined groups get to play a third-place team in the first round. The other four must play a group runner-up in the first round, but get the benefit of not having to play another group winner until the quarterfinals (their mini-section of four teams contains only them and three group runners-up).
The bracket was set before the tournament began, with pre-determined slots for each of the specific group winners, each of the specific group runners-up and the eight qualifying third-place finishers. Where those third-place finishers are placed depends on which combination of teams qualify, with each of the 495 possible combinations resulting in a different set of matchups.
There is a solitary combination—Option 47 out of 495 listed in the annexes of FIFA’s regulations for this summer—that sees a team from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Group B qualify but not be matched up with the U.S.’s Group D winner. If Groups A, C, D, and F all fail to send third-place teams through, Group B’s representative would instead face the winner of Group E (Germany), while the U.S. would face Group I’s third-place team (Senegal or Iraq). Option 47 remained viable as of Thursday morning.
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It’s unclear exactly how the permutations were decided. Similar to Group B, Group L, K and A’s third-place teams each have one very likely round-of-32 placement if they qualify.

There’s also a miniscule chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s four points isn’t enough to see it through. Before Bosnia and Herzegovina’s win over Qatar Wednesday, the U.S. had more than a dozen potential round-of-32 opponents.
Heading into the tournament, four points was believed to be enough to advance 99.81% of the time, according to Opta analysis. Multiply that by the 329/330 combinations that would see Bosnia and Herzegovina placed against Group D’s winner, and you get a roughly 99.5% chance that the European country will face its North American hosts.
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The host countries were all guaranteed a third-place finisher as a round-of-32 opponent if they won their respective groups. After similarly clinching its group through two games, Mexico could still face more than a dozen third-place finishers, according to The Athletic’s projections. Canada lost its ability to play in its home country by dropping its final group stage match against Switzerland. Instead, Canada will face South Africa in Los Angeles.
The winners of Group B, E, F, I, K, will also have third-place finishers waiting for them in the round of 32, before potentially facing off with another group winner in the round of 16. The winner of U.S./Bosnia and Herzegovina will face either the Group G winner (Egypt, Belgium or Iran) or the designated third-place team that is able to take them down.
Matchups won’t be fully set until the end of group play near midnight on Saturday. A third-place finisher will play Germany less than 30 hours later—at 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Another will face France or Norway the next day. Some teams could continue training at their North American practice grounds only to be eliminated over the weekend.
Scotland, for instance, is expected to await its fate from its temporary training base in Charlotte, N.C., after Wednesday’s defeat against Brazil. Sitting on three points, Scotland has a 31% chance of remaining in the World Cup, according to The Athletic. If they do make the round of 32, the Scots could play in one of three different locations, though they most likely would take on Mexico in Mexico City. Thanks to a better goal differential, South Korea—also with three points—has a higher than 80% chance of playing again, according to Opta and The Athletic.
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This year’s format was approved in March 2023. Previously, FIFA planned to divide the 48 teams into 16 groups of three teams, with the top two advancing to knockout games. However, some were concerned that such a system would lead to collusion between teams and more meaningless games during the final set of matchups. Before the 2022 World Cup final, FIFA president Gianni Infantino praised the four-team-group model for delivering “absolutely incredible” drama in Qatar. “We have to at least revisit, or re-discuss” the format for ’26, he said at the time. Moving from eight groups to 12 increased the tournament’s total number of games from 80 to 104.
While FIFA was aware that the current system benefits teams playing their third matches later—seeing as they will know what they need to ensure qualification—it opted not to complicate the format to eliminate the schedule-based imbalance.
With only five teams eliminated prior to their third matches, most face-offs carry meaning into the group stage’s final days. In one of the few stakeless contests, the U.S. is likely to bench players who have received a yellow card so far (and thus face the potential of a suspension for a second) while also resting stars dealing with minor injuries. Still, American players have emphasized a desire to maintain their momentum. Bosnia and Herzegovina awaits. Probably.
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