​If you’d placed a hefty bet on Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza to capture the Heisman Trophy this time last summer, you’d be sipping tropical drinks in Exuma right now. Mendoza entered with 60-to-1 odds to win the award. And that’s the thing about college football’s premier accolade: the eventual winner often arrives from left field, not from the obvious favorite pool.
Title sleepers: five under-the-radar programs that could contend for the national championship. Before Mendoza, past long-shot Heisman victors included Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, LSU’s Joe Burrow, and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith. You could certainly do worse than backing a clear favorite like Texas’s Arch Manning or Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, but are you really going to reach Exuma by choosing a front-runner? For those aiming higher, here are seven Heisman sleepers worth considering. How do I define a Heisman sleeper? Their odds sit worse than 15-to-1.
Full disclosure: I am a Heisman voter. I do not wager on the award.
Here are my top Heisman sleepers for the 2026 season.
BetMGM odds: 25-to-1. I have a soft spot for dual-threat quarterbacks when forecasting Heisman contenders. Reed exudes charisma, and he earned recognition from voters after guiding Texas A&M to the College Football Playoff last season. He’s surrounded by a solid group of receivers. A Black Friday showdown against Texas and Manning will present a prime chance to make a statement before ballots are tallied in December. He must cut down his turnovers and elevate his play against tougher competition.
BetMGM odds: 35-to-1. First, Russell must win the quarterback job. He’s in a competition with veteran backup Austin Mack, who brings more experience, but if Alabama is to reach the playoff, it needs a quarterback with superstar potential. That’s Russell. A former five-star recruit, he’s a dual threat who outperformed Mack in the spring game. As Alabama defensive back Bray Hubbard put it, if you want to know how good Russell’s arm is, just close your eyes and listen to him throw. The ball sizzles.
BetMGM odds: 16-to-1. The one thing missing from Kirby Smart’s Georgia era has been a Heisman winner. Stockton possesses the tools, but does he have the star receivers to support him? Georgia could have used one more big-time target through the portal, in this observer’s view. Still, Stockton has much of what I’m looking for in a Heisman quarterback: a strong arm, precise accuracy, a clutch gene, and the ability to elevate in big moments. When Stockton and Manning faced off in November, who looked better? That answer wasn’t ambiguous.
BetMGM odds: 35-to-1. Toney was among the nation’s best receivers as a freshman—and a dangerous punt returner to boot. As a sophomore, he has a legitimate shot to win the Heisman. Miami should benefit from his presence as the program continues to rise, and Toney’s breakout year could capture the attention of voters across the country.