​In the days leading up to his first draft as Astros general manager, Dana Brown was right where his instincts like to be. “This is probably the fun part of the job because it’s something that I’m so used to,” Brown said at the time. “We’re going through all these names and we’re having conversations, and I’m bringing a lot of my philosophies and my thought processes to it, and so it’s actually exciting and it’s refreshing to be able to talk about some upcoming young players.” The draft had been a central reason Jim Crane brought Brown on board five months earlier, and the first-year GM, who has been far more deeply involved in the draft process than many in his position, set expectations high from the outset.
Brown expressed a clear aim to “nail” the 2023 draft, which to him meant selecting four Major Leaguers. “The average is usually two; I like to double that average, and we were able to do it in Atlanta, and I expect to do it here,” he said. While it’s still early to fully evaluate an MLB draft class after only three years, Brown’s initial run with the Astros is shaping up to fall short of those ambitious targets.
The first-round pick, Brice Matthews, was the 28th overall selection and has spent the entire 2026 season on the Astros’ active roster. Of the 27 players chosen before Matthews, only 14 have appeared in a major league game, and Matthews’ career 0.7 bWAR is higher than five of those drafted ahead of him. The Tigers chose Kevin McGonigle nine spots later, and he signed for nearly $400,000 more than Matthews. The Astros, constrained by a limited draft pool, likely could not have signed McGonigle if they had drafted him.
The Astros’ third-round pick, Jake Bloss, made his Major League debut less than a year after being drafted, the second-fastest progression in the class behind Paul Skenes. Just hours before Bloss was set to make his fourth start for Houston, Brown traded him to the Blue Jays as the centerpiece of the Yusei Kikuchi deal. Matthews and Bloss remain the only players from Brown’s initial draft class to reach the majors, though that status could change soon.
Sixth-rounder Ethan Pecko was recently named Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Month, and Brown identified him as a potential option to start this weekend in Arlington. Before the season, FanGraphs pegged the 23-year-old right-hander as the Astros’ fourth-best prospect, projecting him as a number four or five starter. It seems only a matter of time before Pecko becomes the class’s third big leaguer, though adding a fourth through day-one or day-two picks appears unlikely.
Second-round pick Alonzo Tredwell stands as Brown’s strongest hope among the early selections, but he has yet to pitch this season due to a shoulder injury. Tredwell has only logged 157 minor league innings since being drafted, and his college career was cut short by a back injury that limited him to nine games at UCLA before he underwent Tommy John surgery.