​On Monday’s MLB slate, I offered readers another winner in the best home run bets, with James Wood delivering a loaner of a payday at +250 odds. In that same lineup, Luis Garcia didn’t connect for a homer alongside his power-powered teammate, and the home run props were split for the day. The season’s record stands at 16-53, with three no-bet outcomes for players who didn’t play on the day their homer bet was highlighted. Despite those misses, the overall season performance remains solid for a long-shot prop like a home run bet, and the MLB best home run bets have yielded $1,042 in profit for readers who placed $100 on each home run prop at the stated odds.
As the All-Star break looms, tonight presents another chance to push the first-half winnings higher. Two young left-handed sluggers headline tonight’s MLB slate with the most appealing home run props. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the over 0.5 home runs is priced at +350. Munetaka Murakami is expected to be activated from the Injured List, which could allow him to add to his impressive first-year numbers: 20 home runs in 57 games and 246 plate appearances. The 26-year-old left-handed hitter has shown powerful splits, with four homers in 72 plate appearances against lefties and 16 in 174 against righties.
Murakami’s batted-ball metrics are eye-popping. Among 254 qualified hitters in 2026, he ranks tied for 10th in barrels per plate appearance (10.2%), fourth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (20.7%), fourth in hard-hit rate (58.7%), third in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (100.2 mph), and 34th in maximum exit velocity (114.1 mph). His launch angle sits at 14.5 degrees, with a 46.3% fly-ball rate and a 35.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and a 43.8% pull rate. In short, Murakami is lifting and launching the ball exceptionally well.
Tonight he has a favorable matchup. The Athletics will start Jacob López as the opener, a pitcher who has yielded 11 home runs at a 1.84 HR/9 rate across 13 appearances (10 starts) this season, including giving up two homers to 76 left-handed batters. Aaron Civale is expected to follow López as the primary pitcher, and Civale has also allowed a disproportionate number of home runs to left-handed hitters (16 HR in 15 starts; 192 lefties faced). Murakami could square one in the first inning against López and then have more opportunities to homer against Civale if he doesn’t connect early. Bryce Eldridge possesses considerable raw power and is a strong candidate to homer tonight in a plus matchup.
For the other big angle, over 0.5 home runs is available at +573 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Bryce Eldridge, who sent a splash homer into McCovey Cove last night, has eight home runs on the year in 205 plate appearances for the Giants. He’s belted six of those eight homers against right-handed pitching, setting up a favorable target against tonight’s likely right-handed pitcher. Tanner Gordon has allowed 11 homers at 2.18 HR/9 across 11 appearances, making the right-handed matchup especially inviting for Eldridge to add to his season total. This sets up as a compelling tonight for Eldridge against a pitcher who has shown a propensity to allow hard contact and home runs.
Keep an eye on the line movements and lineup updates, but the core bets center on Murakami’s ceiling for a homer in a prime matchup and Eldridge continuing his power surge against a favorable opponent. Tonight’s opportunities add to the season-long profitability and stand ready to extend the early-half gains as the All-Star break approaches.