​The Heisman Trophy stands as the pinnacle prize in college football, the award that defines a player’s legacy and marks the season as a benchmark of excellence. But who actually has a realistic shot at securing it this year? With thousands of players potentially in the mix, a combination of statistics, team performance, and highlight-reel moments all contribute to narrowing the field to a handful of contenders who could be crowned the sport’s best. To gauge who could join the elite who have earned the Heisman, USA TODAY Sports ran a comprehensive simulation of the 2026 season, repeating the model 100 times in College Football 27 to identify names that consistently emerged as strong contenders.
As expected, the big-name stars did not disappoint, frequently appearing among the simulation’s top performers. Yet the exercise also produced a handful of surprising names that rose to near the top in multiple runs, illustrating how dynamic and unpredictable college football can be from season to season. The analysis comes with a nod to preseason coaching rankings across major conferences—Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12—offering a framework for understanding which programs and players might carry the most momentum into the year.
One note of intrigue is how the results align with the 2025 Heisman winner, Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza appeared in last year’s simulated outcome, hinting that some seasoned players and programs could continue to carry the momentum into 2026. The anticipation is that familiar faces will again vie for the award, while new stars could crash the party and reshape the Heisman race.
The simulated field included a broad mix of players, but a striking pattern emerged: 19 different athletes earned Heisman recognition at least once across the 100 simulations. The vast majority of these players were quarterbacks—16 signal-callers in total—while the remaining three were wide receivers or, in one instance, a running back. The distribution underscores the Heisman’s historical tilt toward prolific passers, though do-not-ignore seasons where receivers and rushing threats have broken through for a prestigious nod.
Alphabetically, the players listed as potential contenders included Cam Vaughn from Miami, a wide receiver noted for his explosive playmaking; Malcolm Simmons of Texas Tech, another standout wide receiver who has turned heads with his correlation to team success; and Oklahoma’s quarterback John Mateer, who stood out as the most frequent winner in the simulations, tallying 19 victories across the runs. Mateer’s consistent performance positions him as a perennial podium finisher as the season unfolds.
Other consistently strong performers across the simulations included Trinidad Chambliss with 17 wins, Jayden Maiava with 13, and Devon Dampier with eight. Sam Leavitt also reached eight appearances in the top spots, followed by Marcel Reed with seven. Byrum Brown and Kevin Jennings each logged six wins, while Arch Manning secured three appearances. Additional players who surfaced as contenders—Cam Vaughn (two wins), Ahmad Hardy (two), Brad Jackson (two), Tayven Jackson (one), DJ Lagway (one), Michael Van Buren Jr. (one), Malcolm Simmons (one), Caden Veltkamp (one), Avery Johnson (one), and Dante Moore (one)—rounded out a diverse pool of potential candidates who could punctuate the Heisman conversation at any moment.
This examination, originally published in connection with USA TODAY’s coverage of College Football 27 simulations, suggests that while the probability strongly favors returning, high-profile quarterbacks, there remains room for surprise breakthroughs as the season progresses. The anticipation is that fans should watch not only the familiar leaders at the top of the preseason rankings but also a cadre of emerging talents who, through peak performances, could propel themselves into the Heisman spotlight.
College Football 27 is positioned for a national release, with a rollout beginning July 9. The game’s ranking of top players starts at No. 25, highlighting names across the landscape of college football, including Shadre Hurst from Louisiana-G, listed as a standout among the soon-to-be-featured stars. The evolving narrative of the Heisman race—shaped by on-field performance, team outcomes, and the occasional pivotal moment—will continue to capture the imagination of fans and analysts alike as the 2026 season unfolds.