​The college football offseason centers on coaching changes, the transfer portal, and recruiting, all of which heighten anticipation for what the upcoming season might bring. A few months ago, updated SP+ rankings surfaced, and this week ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) offers another look at the potential landscape for the season ahead. FPI is a predictive metric that ranks each team’s expected performance for the remainder of the year and shows how far above or below average a team stands. The projections are generated from 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season, incorporating FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule, with ratings and projections updated daily.
ESPN’s FPI places particular emphasis on the Big 12, a conference that is widely expected to be among the most competitive in college football this year. The latest release provides a detailed projection of how the 2026 season might unfold, listing each team by its FPI rating and outlining its chances of winning the conference or earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. For programs whose playoff chances fall below 5%, the analysis also notes the probability of winning six games, which would secure bowl eligibility.
For example, in the latest update from Frisco, Texas, in early July, FPI rated Iowa State with a score of -0.9—ranking them 72nd overall. Their projected record stands at 5.1 wins and 6.9 losses, with a 0.5 percent chance to win the Big 12 and a 1.0 percent chance to make the CFP. They also show a 41 percent probability of reaching six wins, i.e., bowl eligibility. By contrast, another entry from Athens, Ohio, in September, highlighted West Virginia, with Rich Rodriguez serving as head coach, as they faced opponent Ohio in a mid-September matchup. West Virginia’s FPI rating was 0.2, placing them 66th overall, and their projected record was 5.4 wins and 6.6 losses, with a 0.7 percent chance to win the Big 12 and a 1.4 percent chance to make the CFP. Their six-win probability sat around 46.5 percent.
Moving further into the season calendar, a September game in Orlando spotlighted UCF, where Scott Frost oversaw the Knights as they opened their campaigns against North Carolina. UCF’s FPI rating stood at 2.1, ranking them 57th, with a projected mark of 6.1 wins and 5.9 losses, a 1.7 percent shot at winning the Big 12, a 2.9 percent chance to reach the CFP, and a 59.6 percent likelihood of achieving bowl eligibility by winning six games. The Kansas Jayhawks, under head coach Lance Leipold, were also featured in these projections; their FPI rating came in at 2.8, placing them 55th overall, with a 6.0–6.0 projected win-loss line, a 1.6 percent chance to win the Big 12, a 2.7 percent chance to make the CFP, and an 58.1 percent probability of securing bowl eligibility by reaching six wins.
The July 2026 update, recorded in Frisco, also included a broader slate of teams and outcomes. These figures illustrate how even modest shifts in FPI can ripple through conference dynamics, especially in a league as volatile and talent-rich as the Big 12. The framework behind FPI relies on continual recalibration as new data arrive, meaning teams’ projections can swing significantly over the course of the offseason and into the early season as coaching changes, portal activity, and recruiting results become clearer.
As we approach the 2026 season, FPI remains a valuable tool for gauging potential outcomes and for helping fans and analysts anticipate which programs are positioned to contend for conference titles or playoff berths. The rankings and percentages are designed to reflect the likelihood of various scenarios rather than a deterministic forecast, encouraging a nuanced view of how the season could unfold. In short, FPI offers another lens through which to view the coming year, underscoring the competition level in the Big 12 and highlighting the teams with the best chances to rise to the top or fall short of the playoff threshold.