​Want to see more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. Tonight, Conor McGregor and Max Holloway headline UFC 329 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. McGregor returns from a five-year layoff to challenge Holloway, who is moving up to welterweight for this latest UFC clash in the odds market.
Ahead of the fight, around 11 p.m. ET on Paramount+, here are three Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway props and free betting picks to consider before the star-studded showdown on Saturday, July 11. Holloway moneyline at -215, Over 2.5 rounds at -110, and Holloway to win in Round 3 at +675.
McGregor had already shown signs of decline before his five-year break, going 1-3 in his last four bouts and dropping consecutive matches to Dustin Poirier. Poirier, a former opponent who posed a favorable matchup for the aging Irishman, exposed McGregor’s vulnerabilities, with McGregor being outclassed and halted despite brief flashes of his peak form.
This upcoming clash should resemble past patterns, even as Holloway, a former featherweight champion, steps up to welterweight. Holloway’s pace has overwhelmed many well-conditioned fighters, and even a version of McGregor that’s five years older may struggle to match it. We don’t know exactly how much gas McGregor has left, but Holloway’s endurance remains formidable, and many bettors expect him to derail the return.
Holloway has been stopped only once in his pro career, and that loss came from a younger, stylistically superior opponent in Ilia Topuria. In their first meeting, McGregor couldn’t finish Holloway, and his own cardio has shown clear signs of deterioration throughout his UFC tenure. Most observers believe McGregor must finish Holloway early, yet it’s difficult to envision him walking into the Octagon after years of rust and stopping a fighter renowned for durability in MMA.
Holloway is unlikely to stand flat-footed for long; expect him to fight at a measured pace initially to test McGregor’s stamina, then accelerate in the middle rounds. McGregor has dropped three of his last four fights that extended past the opening round, all by stoppage, suggesting he’ll fade after the first round while Holloway edges ahead with higher output.
A combination of Holloway’s relentless pressure and McGregor’s possible exhaustion could make the later rounds one-sided in Holloway’s favor. Expect Holloway to level the score or even pull ahead against his generational rival, in line with what Poirier managed when he stopped McGregor. The sweet spot to consider is the third round, which is why I’m targeting a bet at +675 on Holloway to win in Round 3.
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