​The World Cup semifinals are set and feature the world’s top four teams: France, Spain, England, and Argentina, all of whom have previously captured the trophy. This marks the third occasion on which all four semifinalists are former champions (1970, 1990) and the first time that the top four teams in FIFA’s rankings have all advanced to the semifinals since rankings began in 1992. While FIFA’s seeding of the top four teams into separate quadrants for the first time aided the outcome, each team nonetheless navigated the group stage and an extra knockout round to reach this stage.
France, Spain, England, and Argentina were also the four betting favorites entering the tournament, with Brazil’s title odds often close to Argentina’s in many bookmakers. None of the four teams has lost a match in this tournament. Only Spain and England have dropped points, both drawing against African sides (Spain vs. Cape Verde, England vs. DR Congo), despite dominating the chances.
On paper, the semifinals look as strong as it gets. Here are the best betting angles for the two games: France versus Spain, both teams to score, at -130. This matchup has long been the clash every analyst anticipated since the December draw, pitting the tournament’s two favorites against each other in a semifinal that represents the toughest handicap in the event. No credible result would surprise me.
France’s attack has rightly captured attention. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele are the first pair of teammates to score five goals apiece at a World Cup since Ronaldo and Rivaldo did so for Brazil in 2002. They also sit among the tournament’s top six in chances created, with France leading in goals (16) and a +14 goal difference. Spain isn’t far behind, tallying 11 goals and 11.7 non-penalty expected goals, ranking second in the tournament for non-penalty XG.
Defensively, neither side has coughed up many scoring opportunities. Spain has yielded just one goal in six matches, while France has conceded two, both during the group stage. In the knockout rounds, France has faced 18 shots with an expected goals against of 1.0, and Spain has faced 20 shots with an expected goals against of 1.3. Yet neither team has confronted an attacking unit as potent as its opponent in this particular fixture. Spain triumphed 5-4 against France in last June’s Nations League semifinals, a reminder of the offensive talent on display; while it’s unlikely to replicate that scoreline, both teams finding the back of the net seems plausible. The over at -105 also appears appealing. Even if the game unfolds as a tightening, cagey knockout contest, the raw quality on the field should still produce goals.
For the other semifinal, England to win against Argentina at +160 is appealing. England has needed three one-goal margins to advance through the knockout rounds, while Argentina has come through in similar fashion, save for a stoppage-time goal from Lautaro Martínez that secured a 3-1 victory over Switzerland on Saturday. In the knockout stages, both teams have generally controlled the play, and England has manifested a more consistent edge in possession and chances, contributing to their favorable setup ahead of this clash. Argentina has shown resilience and quality throughout the tournament, but England’s recent form and tighter margins make the +160 on an England upset a compelling wager.