​At the World Cup semifinal stage, the margins in the power rankings are razor-thin. Small details must be scrutinized and hypothetical microscopes deployed to determine where each team belongs. It’s hardly possible for a team to advance from the group stage through three knockout rounds without showing the potential to win the title. That truth has never felt stronger than this year, when the top four teams in FIFA’s rankings have made the semis. All are former World Cup champions, and each has reached multiple major finals over the last decade and a half.
The matchups matter less now, since the eventual champion will have to overcome two of the remaining three contenders, so my power rankings assess both the probability of lifting the trophy and the overall quality of the teams still standing.
Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé will clash again on Tuesday after Spain eliminated France in the UEFA EURO 2024 semifinals. France had been my pick to win most of the tournament, and their 2-0 victory over Morocco in the quarterfinals provided no reason to change that assessment. For the first time in the tournament, France did not control the majority of possession, yet they remained largely untroubled. They consistently exploited the space behind Achraf Hakimi, a clear tactic given Kylian Mbappé on the left and Hakimi as Morocco’s chief attacking threat. It was encouraging to see France also make straightforward adjustments to maximize its immense talent.
France will face a tougher test in solving Spain’s press, but they still hold the highest upside among the remaining teams. I wouldn’t be shocked by any plausible France–Spain outcome, but there’s a greater likelihood of France producing a dominant performance against Spain than the other way around.
I can see Spain at the top as well. Spain has conceded the fewest goals (one) and the lowest expected goals against (1.8) in the tournament, along with the lowest shot quality allowed (0.05 xG per shot), while tallying 11 goals and leading the field with 11.7 non-penalty expected goals. Only one team (Portugal) has faced more than six shots against Spain, thanks to a suffocating press that has driven 56 percent of Spain’s possessions to begin in the middle or attacking thirds—the highest rate among the quarterfinalists.
I don’t yet feel Spain is fully clicking in attack, but the numbers are closely aligned with France’s, so there isn’t a wide gap between the two sides. France has more world-class talent at the top, but Spain holds a stronger overall midfield. The Dallas semifinal should be a terrific duel. A Spain victory would be a mild upset, but not a shock, and whichever team advances will be favored to lift the trophy against either England or Argentina.
England’s Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane have hopes of a celebratory duet again after Wednesday’s match against Argentina. England moves up a spot in the rankings after surviving a third straight one-goal win in a tightly contested stretch.