​One way to find hitters who could bounce back in the second half is to look at expected metrics. Most expected batting average (xBA) formulas involve exit velocity. We want hitters to hit the ball hard. If hitters hit the ball hard and make enough contact, positive outcomes should occur. That’s a case where we want to trust a player’s skills instead of luck.The visual below shows the hitters with the biggest gap in their xBA and actual BA. That suggests these hitters should have a better BA based on their skills.Here’s a look at the biggest gap for hitters between their xBA and actual batting average at the break.(Corbin Young)We’ll take this a step further, looking at the hitters with the biggest expected wOBA difference in their actual wOBA, adding another layer to their profile. Unsurprisingly, some of the hitters with potential positive regression in their xBA also land on the list of xwOBA improvers, as seen below.Here’s a look at the biggest gaps for hitters between their expected wOBA and actual wOBA.(Corbin Young)That said, let’s examine several hitters who could rebound in the second half based on the advanced metrics.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAfter hitting 20+ home runs and stealing double-digit bases in the two previous seasons, most of the projections have Nimmo under 20 home runs. The Mets’ home park ranks 18th, with the Rangers at 17th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed hitters in the three-year rolling average. That said, it’s a neutral change. However, the Rangers’ home park ranks 12th and the Mets is 19th in Home Run Park Factor for left-handed hitters if we filter by this season.Nimmo has been unlucky with the lowest home run rate (HR/F) at 8.8% since his rookie season. That’s over four points below his career average. In Nimmo’s peak home run seasons (2024-2025), he pulled the ball more often. That’s evident in Nimmo’s 38.8% pull rate in 2024 and 35.5% in 2025. Nimmo’s pull rate has fallen to 31.5% this season with a below-average 12% pulled-air rate.Here’s a look at the Rangers OFer’s rolling barrel rates throughout his career.(Corbin Young)We should expect a bounce back from Nimmo in power because he boasts a career-best 9.1% barrel rate per plate appearance, up nearly four points from his career average. Furthermore, Nimmo rocks a 102.4 mph Exit Velocity 50 (EV50), ranking 43rd this season, similar to 2025 (102.6 mph, No. 50). Theoretically, Nimmo’s power output should be better with him barreling up the ball more often and hitting it harder.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIn three outfielder leagues, Nimmo might be more of a streamer to buy low on or scoop up in shallower leagues. However, Nimmo should be a trade target in deeper five-outfielder leagues because he regularly hits in the top half of the Rangers’ lineup and shows better exit velocity metrics.Trout missed nearly one month with a hamstring injury, but he was pacing for nearly 40 home runs beforehand. He popped up