Measuring 136 FBS college football teams by Sustained Win-Rate (SWR)

By admin — In News — July 15, 2026

   ​There are so many ways we like to measure college football teams. Every day, it seems like an analyst is coming up with a new way to dissect this argument to place “team x” on top of the college football landscape.But what if we had a metric to measure teams by that goes beyond what the win column looks like? Let’s be honest, not every win is the same. This is the kind of thinking that sent me down a rabbit hole to find a way to measure success and make all aspects equal in the formula.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWinning percentages are a good metric, but they are very simple. This tells you how often a team won, but what it doesn’t tell you speaks loudly. Is the success earned against premier competition? How recent is the data? Is this a program that is reliable year after year?I wanted a metric that encompasses all three; I call it “Sustained Win-Rate” or SWR.I pulled the game-by-game data for every team in FBS and then built a four-part formula.Schedule-adjusted win percentage: This is a raw win rate adjusted for a bonus or penalty based on how strong or weak a team’s opponents were that year. The baseline is .500 since that is all a team has to be to become bowl-eligible.Recency weighting: This is simply a way to give more weight to recent seasons than older seasons. Why should the data in 2014 matter more than what transpired in 2025? Honestly, it shouldn’t.Consistency scoring: This is calculated in two different ways. One is a simple percentage of seasons over .500, and the other is a stricter version based on year-to-year volatility. I kept both because they tell different stories.Final SWR: The weighted win rate multiplied by the consistency score.No surprise at the top with the Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, and Ohio State Buckeyes all landing at the top. However, the Boise State Broncos posted a perfect consistency score. This validated the metric to reward teams that build a reliable winning culture despite not having blue-blood recruiting.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAnother interesting finding is that both the Michigan Wolverines and Notre Dame Fighting Irish were both higher on the simple consistency rating than the more volatile consistency rating. The trajectories went from years of mediocrity to a late-era surge. This rewards teams for sustained success and penalizes those who show a boom-or-bust history.Clicking on a team will show where they rank among their peers and how the program is trending.Contact/Follow@College_Wire on X and@College_Wires on Threads. Like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of college sports news, notes, and opinions.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: Measuring 136 FBS college football teams by Sustained Win-Rate (SWR)  

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