​Texas A&M’s 2026 season will begin on Saturday, Sept. 5, with the Aggies hosting Missouri State before welcoming Arizona State in Week 2. After reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history last season, coach Mike Elko enters his third year at the helm amid what could be his best campaign yet, even as the schedule on the road among the SEC’s toughest challenges remains formidable.
In the offseason, Elko overhauled his coaching staff, elevating Holmon Wiggins to offensive coordinator and play-caller, while Lyle Hemphill steps in as Texas A&M’s defensive coordinator, succeeding Jay Bateman. Wiggins’ lack of play-calling experience will be a talking point nationwide, but with redshirt junior quarterback Marcel Reed returning for his second full starting season, the Aggies’ offense should maintain the productive pace it established last year. The turnover at guard and tackle, as four starting offensive linemen depart, could hinder early chemistry, yet the team addressed depth by bringing in four SEC-ready starting linemen and a strong 2025 signing class. Offensive line coach Adam Cushing will likely rotate players early in the year to establish the best starting unit.
Earlier this offseason, ESPN released its Football Power Index Rankings, which include FPI projections for all 12 regular-season Texas A&M games, starting with Missouri State and concluding with the regular-season finale against Texas in late November. In the FPI snapshot, A&M is favored in most games, with an overall predicted finish of 9-3. Specific matchups show Texas A&M with a high probability of success in several contests, such as a 98.2% edge over Missouri State and a 90.3% edge over Arizona State, followed by an 89.5% edge over Kentucky. The Aggies are projected to be underdogs in a few key games, including a 56.6% probability for LSU on the road, a 58.2% edge for Alabama on the road at times, and a 65.1% edge against Texas at home later in the season, among others.
The projections also highlight a potential fork in the road: Texas A&M appears favored in the majority of its games, but the five road trips will be pivotal in determining whether they rebound to CFP contention. Wins against LSU, Missouri, and a strong start before a significant road test against Alabama could set the tone for a late-season push, especially if the Aggies can remain undefeated heading into the matchup with Alabama and then navigate the final stretch with confidence.
Several college football analysts have anticipated the Aggies to finish 9-3 or 10-2, underscoring just how much hinges on those road dates and the ability to beat strong opponents in hostile environments. The schedule’s balance of home and away games, along with the modernization of the coaching staff and the depth added on the lines, will shape whether Texas A&M can maximize its ceiling in 2026 and possibly challenge for a return to the CFP.
For ongoing updates, contact and follow Aggies Wire on X (formerly Twitter) at @AggiesWire, and like the page on Facebook for continuous coverage of Texas A&M news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Cameron on X at @CameronOhnysty. This material originally appeared on Aggies Wire under the title: Projecting Texas A&M’s 2026 season using ESPN FPI for better SEO.