The United States Men’s National Team is almost sure of its round of 32 opponent: Bosnia and Herzegovina. That won’t be 100% set until the night of Saturday, June 27, but statistical analysis puts the odds of a US-Bosnia match at more than 99%.By virtue of its 3-1 victory over Qatar on Wednesday, June 24, Bosnia finished third in Group B. The US, as winners of Group D, were guaranteed to face a third-place team from one of five different groups (no matter how its final group game goes Thursday against Turkiye). Per a FIFA table with 495 possibilities on it, almost all roads lead to a showdown with the Group B third-placer.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMore: What a World Cup sounds like in Texas. Sights from England-CroatiaJune 19, 2026; Seattle, Washington, U.S.; Weston McKennie of the U.S. with teammates applaud fans after the match. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn ImagesMore: 2026 FIFA World Cup full schedule, when do US soccer, Mexico playPer a complicated statistical analysis by the New York Times/The Athletic, the odds that the US will play Bosnia are greater than 99%, though they won’t reach 100% until the group stage concludes on June 27. FIFA’s table, with almost 500 combinations, depends on which eight (of 12) third-place finishers advance, and at this point, all likely outcomes have the Group D winner playing the Group B third-placer.The USMNT would take on Bosnia and Herzegovina at 6 p.m. MT/7 p.m. CT at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will be televised on FOX and Telemundo.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBosnia gets eliminated: If nine other third-place teams finish with better records than Bosnia (4 points, -1 goal differential), Bosnia would fail to advance. This is mathematically almost impossible based on the current standings.The Bracket Shifts: A specific, rare combination of advancing third-place teams triggers a shift in the table of combinations, pushing the USMNT’s Group D matchup to face a third-place team from Group E, F, I, or J instead.Match: United States Men’s National Team vs. TBA, but 99% Bosnia and HerzegovinaMore: What’s next for USMNT and Mexico? Possibilities for rounds of 32, 16Stadium: Levi’s Stadium (Bay Area Stadium) in Santa Clara, Calif.Date: Wednesday, July 1Kickoff time: 6 p.m. MT/7 p.m. CTBret Bloomquist can be reached at bbloomquist@elpasotimes.com; @Bretbloomquist on X.This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: When does US Soccer play again? Team likely draws Bosnia and Herzegovina Read More Feedzy
USA soccer round of 32 opponent is almost surely Bosnia and Herzegovina
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