​LINCOLN, NEBRASKA – OCTOBER 3: Malik Washington #7 of the Maryland Terrapins warms up on the field before the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium on October 3, 2026 in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images) | Getty Images College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.Ohio State’s lone home game in the month of October comes against Maryland. The Buckeyes are about to embark on a three-game stretch against ranked opponents, but first must get past Mike Locksley and the Terrapins. Ryan Day has handled the Terps rather handily in their prior meetings, and Ohio State has never lost to Maryland since the East Coast program joined the Big Ten in 2014. Football Power IndexOhio StateFPI: 28.8 (Rank: 1)Proj. W-L: 10.1-2.6Win Out %: 21.66 Wins %: 100Win Conf. %: 44.8CFP %: 77.1Make NC %: 23.7Win NC %: 13.3MarylandFPI: -2.5 (Rank: 78)Proj. W-L: 3.9-8.1Win Out %: 06 Wins %: 8.1Win Conf. %: 0CFP %: 0Make NC %: 0Win NC %: 0FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 99%SP+Ohio StateRank: No. 2 (no change from last week)Rating: 30.3Offense: 42.0 (2nd)Defense: 11.6 (2nd)Special Teams: -0.1 (100th)MarylandRank: No. 61 (down 5 from last week)Rating: 2.2Offense: 28.5 (57th)Defense: 26.3 (70th)Special Teams: 0.1 (58th)MatchupProjected Winner: Ohio SateProjected Margin: 30.5 pointsWin Probability: 97%Projected Score (rounded): 42-12Computer ModelsSagarin RankingsOhio State: 94.66 (3rd)Maryland: 67.53 (78th)The Power RankOhio State: 27.76 (1st)Maryland: -1.28 (69th)Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat Maryland by 31.9 at home (98% win chance)Massey RatingsOhio State: 8.99 (6th)
Offense: 69.60 (4th)Defense: 44.16 (1st)Maryland: 7.23 (75th)
Offense: 56.70 (70th)Defense: 28.48 (78th)Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 38, Maryland 10 (97% win probability)Advanced MetricsRank MetricOhio State Offense vs. Maryland DefenseMetricRank1st0.49EPA/Pass0.0975th67th0.03EPA/Rush0.0991st4th66%Available Yards %47.5%72nd40thOwn 32Starting Field PositionOwn 3189th5th0.27Early Downs EPA/Play0.1089th23rd51.4%3rd/4th Down Success43.9%74th37th6.47Avg 3rd Down Distance7.0272ndRankMetricMaryland Offense vs. Ohio State DefenseMetricRank114th-0.14EPA/Pass-0.1716th103rd-0.07EPA/Rush-0.1127th87th42.6%Available Yards %32.9%7th14thOwn 34Starting Field PositionOwn 32103rd109th-0.03Early Downs EPA/Play-0.1311th123rd32.8%3rd/4th Down Success38.8%43rd112th7.82Avg 3rd Down Distance7.3951stAdvanced Metrics ExplainerEPA (Expected Points Added)How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situationValue is primarily driven by down, distance and field position
A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yar