​The Arizona high school Open Division state playoffs start Nov. 13 for eight teams. The top four seeds have byes to the quarters on Nov. 20. The first two rounds are played at the higher seeds’ stadium.Is it a five-team race to the top?It has felt that way since the season’s beginning with Chandler Basha, Chandler, Chandler Hamilton, Peoria Liberty and Peoria Centennial all in the mix. A stunning early-season 40-7 loss by Basha to Phoenix Pinnacle made it feel like more teams would be included. But Basha has righted itself with players getting healthy and now is playing like the No. 1 team it was in preseason.The Arizona Republic examines the “Big Five” ahead of the ultimate state playoffs.Why Basha will win the state titleThe Bears are the defending Open state champions, and they returned a team that appeared even more loaded on paper with 14 seniors committed to Division I colleges to play football. Quarterback Jake Rogers was calm and cool under pressure, leading Basha past Chandler for the state title last year. He’s back and performing well. So is top receiver Jaden Baldwin. And electric tailback Noah Roberts, a Texas commit, who has been running the ball exceptionally well in the last month of the season. The two big tackles — Arizona State commit Jake Hildebrand and California commit DaJohn Yarborough — fuel the run game and provide Rogers protection to make the right reads.The defense, led by linebacker Marc Duerson III and Kyser Wilson, has been playing at a high level since the Pinnacle loss. Defense keyed Basha’s 30-22 Sept. 18 win over Liberty that started a six-game winning streak. And kicker Mikey Barth is good from beyond 50 yards.Why Liberty will win the state titleThe Basha game got away from the Lions in the third quarter. This team is too good to let that happen again if there’s a rematch. Word surfaced early Friday that sophomore quarterback Jason Haines suffered a collarbone injury last week and was out for the Nov. 6 game against Centennial. Backup Kenny Raymond also was out, after suffering a knee injury in the Phoenix Sandra Day O’Connor game on Oct. 30. So, Liberty’s chances may depend on how they address that situation. Still, the Lions’ defense might be as good as its 2023 and ’24 state championship teams with junior linebacker Brecken Garday leading the way. It looked exceptional in a 38-7 win over Hamilton on Oct. 23. That knocked Hamilton off the top ranking spot in 6A.This Liberty team will find a way to move the ball. Head coach Colin Thomas is inventive on offense. But, if the Lions aren’t able to find any rhythm passing the ball, they’ve got three talented running backs, Jayden Sanchez, Chase Ochoa and Gavin Lombardi, and a strong line to give them the boost. Why Chandler will win the state title You need great quarterback play to win state titles, and the Wolves might have the best, senior Will Mencl, an Oregon commit, who can make plays with his arm and legs. Mencl wants that state title after getting to th