​My Joey Chestnut is Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes in 1973, where he won the Triple Crown race by a record-breaking 31 lengths. At 42, Chestnut is so far ahead of the field at the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest that he must search for motivation elsewhere. His aim is to surpass perhaps an unbreakable record—one of his own. In 2021, Chestnut consumed 76 hot dogs and buns, the most ever in the contest’s history since its 1967 start. Can he gulp down 77 hot dogs on Coney Island in New York on Saturday, July 4? Or is the mark as invincible as Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game for the Philadelphia Warriors in 1962?
There are reasons to back Chestnut and reasons to doubt him. At 42, he may have already peaked. Since his record-setting performance, his average in the 10-minute event has been about 65 hot dogs. In the 2024 head-to-head showdown with Kobayashi, Chestnut ate 83 hot dogs, though he noted that the Ball Park Franks used in that match were smaller than the Nathan’s all-beef dogs grilled for the Coney Island contest.
Numbers show a Chestnut trend. In 2015, he lost to Matt Stonie, who ate 62 hot dogs while Chestnut managed 60. That defeat became a turning point, and the following year he began his most dominant stretch: 2016—70, 2017—72, 2018—74, 2019—71, 2020—75, 2021—76. Since the 76-dog performance, however, his results have slipped: 2022—63, 2023—62, 2024—banned due to a sponsorship dispute with Major League Eating that runs the Nathan’s contest, and 2025—70½.
Weather is a looming factor for Chestnut this week. He recently admitted he winced at the forecast for Coney Island on July 4, with thunderstorms unlikely to arrive until the afternoon but a projected high of 92 degrees and dangerous heat in the forecast.
Chestnut has a plan. In December, he revealed he was on Day 3 of a detox, saying he was crafting a program to get in better shape and chase more records. His training regimen remains legendary and partly private, but he has shared some techniques, including neck raises with a heavy bag attached to a leather strap that dangles from a mouthguard, burping exercises, and the use of Primatene, an over-the-counter inhaler for mild intermittent asthma to aid breathing.
Yet those measures have not moved him within five hot dogs of his record since it was set. ESPN’s Jeremy Schaap, the play-by-play announcer for the Nathan’s contest entering his third year, notes the challenge: “We all want to see Joey top himself, but it will be difficult in these conditions. When it’s 95 degrees and the buns are soggy and that 10-minute run feels like three hours … I wouldn’t rule him out because it’s Joey Chestnut, but it’s going to be tough.”
This article originally appeared.