​At the very least, I didn’t have to scribble “Braves tumble” in St. Louis, though the possibility of their tumble still looms. The Braves managed to steady themselves, or at least give the impression of doing so, in Pittsburgh earlier this week, taking a series for the first time since June 19-21. After opening the season with an 18-2-1 pace in terms of series results, Atlanta has slipped to 2-6-1 since—potentially flipping one of those losses to a tie because of a rainout. One of those six recent series losses came at the hands of the Cardinals in Atlanta, and the Braves now have a chance to repay the favor in St. Louis this weekend before everyone heads into the All-Star Break.
The Cardinals didn’t have a particularly enjoyable ride after leaving Atlanta. They did win a series against their archrivals, the Cubs, but then dropped four of five to the Brewers, a swing that dealt a meaningful blow to their playoff odds (dropping from roughly 40 percent to about 30 percent). Earlier, the Brewers seemed to have their way, and the Cardinals clung to the NL’s last playoff spot with a one-game cushion over the Marlins; since then, the picture has shifted to three games courtesy of how the standings have broken, creating a bit less of a logjam. The three NL Wild Card teams are separated by half a game, with the Braves leading by three games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are part of a second tier of pseudo-contenders positioned a bit further back.
Overall, the Cardinals rank 14th in position-player fWAR and 21st in pitching fWAR, which does not scream productive production. Yet they’ve logged two more wins than their run differential would suggest and sit three wins above what BaseRuns would imply, a discrepancy that goes a long way toward explaining their current standing. The Braves will bring one steady rotation piece to the mound for this matchup, which is welcome. Still, Chris Sale will need to rebound after a stinging performance in his most recent start. He lasted only five innings against the Mets, surrendering two homers and posting a 3/2 K/BB ratio in a game that, while not altering the outcome, wasn’t exactly encouraging in a vacuum. His FIP marked his second-worst of the season, and his xFIP- for the start sat at 123—one of the higher marks this year, and only the second time he’s exceeded 100, the only time he’s over 105, and his fourth-worst start as a Brave. In general, Sale tends to bounce back after a poor outing, so there’s reason to expect a rebound here.
Remarkably, Sale has somehow avoided the Cardinals as a Brave to date, facing them only twice in his career: once in 2015 and once in 2023, and he dominated both appearances. On the flip side, the Braves will line up against 29-year-old Kyle Leahy, a pitcher they didn’t see in Atlanta. Leahy spent 2024 and 2025 pitching in long relief for St. Louis but has moved into a starting role after some solid work in 2025 (1.4 fWAR in 88 innings, largely thanks to a low HR/FB ratio). The Braves will approach Leahy with a plan designed to test his durability and force him into extended outings, aiming to keep their offense in rhythm as they chase a win to tilt the series in their favor before the break.