​ESPN recently released its College Football Power Index (FPI) Rankings, and Rutgers sits near the bottom of the Big Ten, with an FI rating of -0.2, placing the Scarlet Knights as the No. 67 team in the country. Purdue is the only Big Ten program rated lower, at No. 71. The FPI is designed to forecast how teams will perform by evaluating predicted contributions from three core units: offense, defense, and special teams. Each unit’s rating represents the expected point contribution to a team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent. In the preseason, these components rely entirely on data gathered from prior seasons, including returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings, and coaching tenure. This approach enables FPI to generate predictions and gauge opponent strength starting in Week 1, while the weight assigned to these historical inputs gradually declines as the season progresses. It’s worth noting that historical information never entirely disappears from the model, as it has been shown to improve prediction accuracy even after a season ends. Vegas lines also incorporate priors in their odds calculations.
Since its initial release, the FPI methodology has evolved to incorporate new factors such as the transfer portal, which can influence team strength in ways that were not previously captured. Despite the incorporation of a broader data set, there remains a substantial degree of uncertainty regarding how teams will perform. Last season, Rutgers’ defense ranked among the weaker units in the FBS, which weighed on the program’s overall projections. The incoming influx of transfers aimed at the defensive side of the ball, coupled with a comprehensive overhaul of the defensive coaching staff, suggests there could be meaningful improvements on that side of the ball. This shift in defensive personnel and strategy is a key variable that forecasts suggest could elevate Rutgers closer to mid-tier Big Ten defenses.
On the offensive front, Rutgers appears to have a more stable trajectory. The Scarlet Knights were able to retain several key contributors, including wide receiver KJ Duff, running back Antwan Raymond, and offensive lineman Kwabena Asamoah, which helps preserve continuity and experience at critical positions. While the quarterback position remains unsettled, the path to the starting role for the upcoming season appears to offer a favorable set of circumstances for a quarterback stepping into a relatively strong supporting cast. If the battle for the signal-caller position is resolved in favor of a player who can efficiently utilize Rutgers’ established skill players and line dynamics, the program could enter the season with a competitive offense that benefits from familiarity and depth at key spots.
In sum, ESPN’s FPI projection for Rutgers reflects a program with clear areas of concern, particularly on defense, but also signals potential for improvement through new talent and coaching changes. The combination of a revamped defensive unit, continued offensive continuity, and smart quarterback succession presents Rutgers with a plausible path to rising within the conference hierarchy. As with all FPI-based forecasts, the model’s estimates are contingent on a variety of evolving factors, including player development, mid-season adjustments, and the practical impacts of transfer portal movements. Rutgers’ outlook will hinge on how effectively the new defensive regime stabilizes the back end and how swiftly the offense capitalizes on the accumulated experience and surrounding talent.