​The Oklahoma Sooners look as though they possess many of the elements necessary to chase a national championship. After finishing 10-3 and earning a return trip to the College Football Playoff last season, expectations are rising in Norman. Oklahoma also brings back a substantial portion of its core, tying for No. 12 nationally in returning production. Those factors typically translate into a legitimate opportunity to contend for a national title. The primary hurdle, however, is the schedule. The Sooners’ slate is considered the second-toughest in college football, only behind the Arkansas Razorbacks. Among the notable tests are road trips to face the Michigan Wolverines and the Georgia Bulldogs, a neutral-site showdown with the Texas Longhorns, and home dates versus the Ole Miss Rebels and the Texas A&M Aggies.
Those opponents all carry College Football Playoff aspirations, and three of them reached the playoff field last season. With that in mind, the enduring question is how big Oklahoma’s chances are of securing its eighth national championship. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a metric designed to forecast a team’s future performance over the remainder of the season, assigns the Sooners a 2% probability of winning it all.
Where does that leave Oklahoma in the landscape of the SEC according to FPI? The metrics place Oklahoma at No. 12 among all college programs and No. 6 within the SEC, trailing Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M. Three of those programs are on Oklahoma’s schedule this season. Despite Oklahoma’s returning production and the momentum built from last season, ESPN’s projection suggests the Sooners remain a tier below the sport’s top championship contenders as 2026 approaches.
For ongoing updates on Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions, you can follow the Sooners Wire team on X (formerly Twitter) at @SoonersWire and like the page on Facebook. You can also keep up with Jaron on X at @jaronspor. This analysis originally appeared on Sooners Wire in coverage exploring ESPN’s revealed national championship odds for Oklahoma in 2026.