​There are countless paths to building a healthy organization and, eventually, a viable Major League Baseball team, most of which unfold far from the glare of the draft’s first-round spotlight. Yet a franchise reveals a lot about itself by how it treats its very first pick at MLB’s annual selection meeting. Not every top pick is created equal, either. Some aren’t even first-rounders due to compensation for free agents, luxury-tax penalties, or sign-stealing penalties. With that context, USA TODAY Sports set out to evaluate the last decade of each team’s top picks, considering their average draft position and the total WAR (as recorded by Baseball-Reference) produced by major leaguers in the past ten years. If a top pick did not sign, the first signee was graded.
As of Saturday, July 11, the first round will introduce a new cohort to be assessed over time. But here’s who did the best job with their first picks from 2016 through 2025:
– Mariners: Average draft position for the first pick: 14.7. Major leaguers produced: 8. Total WAR: 30.7. Notable: The Mariners stand out as one of four clubs to produce eight big leaguers from this span, and they should push to 10 of 10 since every top pick from 2016 to 2023 reached the majors. Their drafting yielded a rotation built around collegiate right-handers Logan Gilbert (14th overall, 2018), George Kirby (20th, 2019), and Emerson Hancock (sixth, 2020). They also added a middle infield via the 21st and 22nd picks, selecting high school talents Cole Young and Colt Emerson in consecutive years. Lucking into the No. 3 pick and Kade Anderson a year ago felt almost unfair. Logan Gilbert became the first of three eventual rotation mainstays drafted by Seattle from 2018 to 2020.
– Tigers: Average draft position: 8.6. Major leaguers produced: 7. Total WAR: 24.3. Notable: With six top-10 picks in this span, Detroit navigated the process without wrecking it. The organization added a three-time All-Star outfielder (Riley Greene), an All-Star starting pitcher (Casey Mize), a slugging first baseman (Spencer Torkelson), and the game’s No. 4 outfield prospect (Max Clark). It’s worth noting that All-Star Kevin McGonigle doesn’t even count in these computations because he was taken after Clark in 2023.
– Padres: Average draft position: 14.9. Major leaguers produced: 6. Total WAR: 37. Notable: MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, and Jackson Merrill rose to All-Star status, with one even reaching that peak with the Padres. A.J. Preller’s high-wire act stands out, marked by heavy investments in high-ceiling but volatile high schoolers (nine of the ten top picks in this period were high school players) and subsequent trades to keep the big-league club competitive. With the exception of Merrill, every top pick from 2016 to 2022—Cal Quantrill, Gore, Ryan Weathers, Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Dylan Lesko—appeared in the majors at some point, underscoring the Padres’ willingness to gamble on potential.
If you’re examining how a franchise’s drafting philosophy translates into major-league success, these snapshots illustrate the impact of prioritizing certain pathways, the balance between college and high school talent, and the long arc from prospect to contributor. The landscape will continue to evolve as the July 11 round unfolds, offering new data to gauge how well each club translates premium picks into sustained big-league impact.