​With Argentina, England, France and Spain just two games from glory, we compare how the four semi-finalists have performed so far to gauge who might lift the World Cup this weekend. All four teams have played six matches, but Argentina have logged more playing time than France and Spain due to extra-time runs, with England adding about half an hour more. To present an accurate picture, we’ve adjusted for playing time when assessing the statistics.
Reigning champions Argentina have the most goals with 17, yet France, the two-time champions, have been the most dynamic attackers overall, averaging the most goals and the highest number of shots and Expected Goals per 90 minutes. Argentina have been the most clinical, converting 18% of their chances, while Spain have been the least efficient in front of goal. Despite taking as many shots as their semi-final opponent France (110), Spain have managed only 11 goals compared with France’s 16—nearly a goal per game fewer.
When considering both the quantity and quality of shots, England appear less creative than the other three sides, yet they’ve still surpassed two goals per game thanks to the clinical finishing of Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. Spain stand out as the tightest defences, having conceded their first goal of the tournament only in their quarter-final win over Belgium, while France have conceded just two goals across their six games.
With the France attack looking formidable, it will be intriguing to see whether their relentless offense or Spain’s virtually impenetrable defense prevails in Tuesday’s clash. The other semi-final between England and Argentina is also likely to feature more goals, as neither side has been particularly stout at the back.
Both teams have conceded six goals so far, with England allowing the most chances and Argentina the least successful at keeping them out. Argentina have covered the most ground overall—706.5 kilometers—but that total is largely due to playing more football. When adjusted for playing time, they have actually run the least and posted the fewest sprints among the four remaining teams. In fact, they have been out-ran by their opponents in every match to date.
unsurprisingly, the reigning champions have also been the least aggressive in pressing, winning the ball high up the pitch less often than England, France, and Spain. By contrast, Spain have been the hardest-working of the final four, covering more distance, sprinting more, and pressing the opposition more than their rivals. Spain also boast the most possession at 66% and share the top passing accuracy at the tournament alongside Argentina at 90.4%, though all four teams have been proficient passers. The question remains whether England and Argentina can sharpen defensively in time for their high-stakes clash, and whether France’s firepower or Spain’s solidity will prevail in the other semi-final.