​The Cincinnati Bengals are weighing whether to extend the rookie contract of running back Chase Brown, a decision that comes with plenty of financial nuance. NFL evaluators have urged Cincinnati to proceed with caution, as Brown’s current standing in the league suggests that a long-term commitment at a premium price may not be the wisest move right now. He did not crack ESPN’s top 10 list of running backs in its annual survey of more than 70 executives, scouts, and coaches, and Pro Football Focus slots him 18th out of 32 starting backs. Even though Brown surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career last season, his overall market value relative to the size of the contract likely won’t justify a sizable extension.
Brown’s fit within Cincinnati’s offensive system remains solid. Over the past two seasons, he has become a dependable starter as the Bengals have developed him after drafting him in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Now that his contract year is underway, the challenge is identifying a fair extension figure. The running back market has recovered modestly in recent years, with seven players earning at least $14 million per year, three of whom agreed new deals this offseason. Travis Etienne signed for about $12 million annually as a free agent in March. According to Spotrac, Brown’s market value sits in the mid-range between Etienne’s figure and the $14 million threshold, around $13.1 million per year. Yet based on PFF metrics and the opinions of NFL personnel, that level still feels like a stretch for Brown at this stage of his career.
A bracket below the $12–14 million range appears more fitting for Cincinnati and Brown. Javonte Williams of the Dallas Cowboys and J.K. Dobbins of the Denver Broncos each agreed to multi-year deals carrying an average annual value of roughly $8 million. Williams, 26, just logged his first 1,000-yard season, while Dobbins has yet to reach 1,000 yards and will be 28 later this year. That creates a plausible argument that Brown, who turned 26 in March, should be positioned just above the $8 million AAV mark. Targeting somewhere in the $8–10 million range would place him outside the top-13 at the position, aligning more closely with how he’s viewed league-wide.
If Cincinnati can secure Brown on a value contract—ideally with an AAV around $10 million or less—it would reflect his contribution without overshadowing the Bengals’ larger investment in core players. The franchise is heavily invested in Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, the trio that anchors the offense. Paying a tailback too much in addition to those big-ticket contracts could be an inefficient use of resources, even with Brown’s proven production.
There is a market for Brown, of course, just as there are other ways to replace production as needed. The reality of the running back position in the NFL is that it comes with a spectrum of value, and teams must balance the short-term production against the long-term financial implications. While the Bengals have a legitimate case to keep Brown, they must carefully weigh whether extending him at a high tier price is prudent given the salaries already devoted to Burrow and his top receivers. A value-based middle ground—potentially in the $8–10 million range, with the possibility of incentives—could allow Cincinnati to maintain a steady rushing attack without compromising the flexibility to roster elite playmakers at other positions.