​Here are my other NFL team previews: 32. Dolphins | 31. Jets | 30. Cardinals | 29. Browns | 28. Titans | 27. Raiders | 26. Falcons | 25. Giants | 24. Saints | 23. Panthers | 22. Buccaneers. The Indianapolis Colts finishing 8-9 last season wasn’t a surprise given preseason expectations, but how they arrived at that record was extraordinary—historic, even. The Colts started 8-2, sitting atop the AFC South with a 2.5-game cushion, and their playoff odds hovered around 98.2% according to DVOA. The offense, buoyed by early standout play from quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor, produced efficiency numbers rarely seen, fueling whispers of a potential Super Bowl run. The decision to trade two first-round picks to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner seemed sensible in the moment because the team looked like a legitimate contender.
Yet even as the Colts rode that hot start, they preached restraint. “As a team, you can’t get satisfied,” tight end Mo Alie-Cox told the club’s website. “We know things like this league can change in a heartbeat.” Those words proved almost prophetic. The Colts began losing tight games, Jones battled through a fractured fibula before eventually tearing an Achilles, and Indianapolis’ season spiraled. A heartening comeback story of Philip Rivers returning at age 44 after retirement didn’t translate into wins. After a 7-1 stretch, the Colts finished on an 0-7 skid. They were eliminated from playoff contention before Week 18 kicked off.
Their woes were so severe that they joined an unfortunate club: the sixth AFL-NFL merger era team to miss the playoffs after starting 8-2, according to Josh Dubow of the Associated Press. And they were the first team ever to begin 8-2 or better and finish under .500—an irony magnified by the 17-game schedule, which hadn’t existed when such a feat was previously considered possible. Still, the collapse wasn’t merely a bad stretch; it highlighted a team that had looked dominant at times, only to crash when adversity hit.
The season’s sting lingered because the Colts had looked so good early. It wasn’t a fluke run; through seven games, their offense was scoring more points per drive than any other team this century, even outrunning the 2007 Patriots in per-drive efficiency, according to Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer. They were blowing out opponents, making early-season opponents look overwhelmed.
The Colts’ own report reflecting last season noted that only four teams finished with four or more wins by 21 or more points: the 14-3 Seahawks, the 13-4 Jaguars, the 12-5 Rams, and the 8-9 Colts. They were the first team since the 2019 Cowboys to miss the playoffs with four wins by at least 21 points, according to the club’s data. Despite a seven-game losing streak, Indianapolis recorded a +54 point differential, which ranked ahead of five playoff teams (the Steelers, Chargers, Bears, Packers, and Panthers) and matched the Eagles.
In the first half of the season, the Colts arguably owned the NFL’s best form, a stretch that underscored the dramatic arc of a year that could have gone down as a landmark success story had the takeaways remained positive. The collapse, painful as it was, did not erase the remarkable early momentum or the potential the team displayed. The challenge for the offseason will be translating those early-season strengths into sustained success, addressing the vulnerabilities that surfaced in late-season adversity, and rebuilding momentum toward a more complete and resilient season in the years ahead. The tale of the 2023 Colts serves as a potent reminder that in the NFL, a season can pivot on a handful of pivotal plays—and that early brilliance does not guarantee a long, stable ascent.