Week One Done: The basketball offseason work begins
Looking at the Wolfpack roster this season (before the season starts), there is no player that you think, “This guy has NBA SUCCESS written all over him.” Does that automatically put a lid on how far the Wolfpack can go? Remember, things change during the season based on performance, remember ‘Q’? Exactly how many NBA draft prospects would the Pack need to have a shot at the title? I thought it would be interesting to correlate the players in this mock draft to success in this year’s NCAA tournament.
With the NBA draft this week, last week ESPN put together one last mock draft. (FYI – Quadir Copeland is projected as the last pick in the draft – #60 – to the Washington Wizards. The only Wolfpack player included.) Assuming those are the players that will be drafted (it won’t be 100%, but it’ll be close), how did their schools do this past season?
ESPN Mock Draft – Fast Facts
16 (of 60) players included are freshmen, the projected first 10 are all freshmen
31 Seniors
3 Juniors
6 Sophomores
4 International
NCAA Tournament Results – Fast Facts
Only 11 schools (TCU, MSU, Florida, Nebraska, VCU, Tex A&M, Utah St, High Point, Gonzaga, Miami, and Saint Louis) won a game that do not have players in the mock draft.
Michigan State and Nebraska were the only teams that won two games that do not have players in the mock draft.
No team made it past the Sweet 16 without NBA prospects.
On the other hand, 8 schools (Baylor, Cincinnati, George Washington, Grand Canyon, Northwestern, Stanford, Va Tech, and Washington) each have one player in the mock draft and weren’t invited to the tournament at all.
And 7 schools have players in the mock draft (BYU (2 players), NC State, Ohio State, Santa Clara, South Florida, Tenn State, and UNC (2 players)) and made the tournament but did not win a game.
Scorecard: Final Four
Michigan (Champ) – has 3 players projected to be drafted in the top 15
UConn (finals) – 2 players projected #29 & #31
Arizona – 4 players in the draft, one projected in the top 10
Illinois – 2 players in the draft, one projected in the top 5
Scorecard: Elite Eight
3 players in draft – Tennessee – one top ten
2 players in draft – Duke – one top five
1 player in the draft – Iowa & Purdue
Scorecard: Sweet 16
4 players in the draft – Houston – one top ten
3 players in the draft – Arkansas – one top ten, St John’s
1 player in the draft – Alabama, Iowa St, Texas
Scorecard: Second Round
All had one player in the mock draft except Louisville – Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville (2), Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Best Coaching jobs?
You have to give a tip of the hat to Iowa and Purdue. They made it further than anyone else in the tournament with only one NBA prospect. Each of their prospects were senior guards. Honorable mention to Alabama, Iowa St, and Texas who won a couple of games while also struggling along with ‘only’ one draft prospect each.
Worst Coaching jobs?
UNC (0 wins) – Two projected first round draft picks! VCU (who sent them packing) has zero players in the draft.
Louisville (1 win) – #7 player and #39 player. MSU has zero players in the draft. Pat Kelsey out coached by Tom Izzo. (Kelsey’s in very good company)
Coaching legends Calipari (3 draftees), Pitino (3), and Sampson (4) had stacked lineups but each only won 2 games.
Conclusion:
(2023-2024) 11-seed NC State makes it to the Final Four!
You aren’t going to last long in the tournament anymore without high-end talent. But having them doesn’t guarantee success, 3 of the top 4 projected draft pick’s teams (BYU, Kansas, UNC) didn’t get to the tournament’s second weekend.
The impact of the mighty dollar has been especially obvious in college basketball the last two seasons. In the ’24-’25 tournament the Elite Eight was 4 1-seeds, 3 2-seeds and a 3-seed. The Final Four was all 1-seeds. This season, the Elite Eight was 3 1-seeds, 2 2-seeds, a 3-seed, a 6-seed, and a 9-seed (bravo Iowa!). The Final Four was 2 1-seeds, plus a 2-seed and a 3-seed. A 1-seed won both seasons.
Wouldn’t be interesting (and sad) if NC State’s 2024 Final Four run is recognized as the last of the Cinderellas?
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