​This Saturday brings UFC 329, headlined by the long-awaited return of Conor McGregor. “Notorious” hasn’t fought in five years, since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021, and the question on everyone’s mind is how he’ll look after such a lengthy layoff when he faces Max Holloway. Adding intrigue, this is a rematch of a 2013 decision McGregor earned over Holloway, though both fighters have since evolved into Hall of Fame-worthy competitors.
So, let’s break down how McGregor and Holloway might find success and climb back into the win column this weekend. Talking about McGregor with any real confidence is tricky, given the jagged path his career has taken. At his peak, McGregor was a supremely talented fighter with a sharp fight IQ, making him a formidable threat in any matchup. His run through the featherweight division wasn’t a fluke. Powered by a monster left hand and a strategic framework built to maximize it, McGregor posed a serious problem for anyone at 145 pounds.
But then he moved up. At lightweight, he delivered some excellent performances, but those wins came against opponents who seemed tailor-made for him—Eddie Alvarez and Donald Cerrone. In his other outings, his power didn’t travel as effectively up to 155 pounds, and his overall game appeared limited. Is that because of all the other things going on in his life? Possibly. Is that the sole reason he’s looked ordinary at lightweight? Not necessarily.
And now we’re not even at lightweight; we’re back up to 170 pounds, a division McGregor arguably has no business competing in, even if it’s against a fellow blown-up featherweight/lightweight. In short, it’s very difficult to predict what McGregor will bring this weekend, both because of the layoff and because, even before the hiatus, there were signs of decline. When McGregor is operating at his best, he pushes opponents to the fence, lures them into a reckless charge with rapid-fire pot shots and kicks, and then lands the left hand with devastating effect. That formula has fueled most of his greatest moments, and it’s reasonable to assume that he’ll look to employ something similar on Saturday.
If that’s the plan, I’d like to see McGregor lean more into his kicking game. He isn’t great with low kicks, but he does possess a repertoire of unconventional high and spinning kicks that can keep an opponent off balance. Those spinning strikes are primarily designed to punish opponents who circle away from him—a tactic Holloway may not rely on heavily. Holloway has added kicks to his own toolkit, but his primary focus remains boxing, so every time McGregor can keep Holloway’s hands from returning to guard high kicks, the fewer combinations Holloway can land in response.
The key adjustment for McGregor, in my view, is to reclaim his best version of himself. When he fought Poirier the first time, he had recently returned from a layoff and didn’t look like himself; the second Poirier fight underscored how important timing, rhythm, and intent are for McGregor. He needs to reestablish the pace, pressure, and precision that defined him in his prime. It’s not just about power; it’s about decision-making, distance management, and exploiting openings with surgical accuracy.
For Holloway, the challenge is to defend against McGregor’s elite moments while imposing his own style. Holloway has grown into a more complete fighter, mixing in leg and body work with his boxing. He’ll want to stay on the move, use feints to draw out McGregor’s counters, and exploit any breaths of space McGregor gives him to accumulate damage across rounds. Holloway’s path to victory likely involves staying busy, maintaining cardio, and forcing McGregor to work at a pace that can reveal cracks in his timing.
As for predictions, this is a fascinating case study in form, momentum, and the different trajectories of two of the most recognizable fighters in the sport. McGregor’s chances hinge on whether he can recapture the aura and precision of his peak years, adapt to a heavier division, and implement a kick-heavy game that keeps Holloway off balance. Holloway’s path to victory depends on keeping McGregor off rhythm, varying his attack with volume, and sustaining pressure across all five rounds.
In the end, the outcome will likely come down to who can impose their preferred pace and control the range. If McGregor can execute a well-timed mix of high and spinning kicks to draw Holloway’s hands away from his guard and then land the left when Holloway’s guard is compromised, he can swing the momentum in his favor. If Holloway can maintain forward pressure, exploit missed timing, and use volume to overwhelm a potentially cautious McGregor, he could edge out a decision or secure late damage.
Regardless of the result, this matchup promises an intriguing spotlight on McGregor’s resilience and Holloway’s continued evolution. It’s a battle between a legendary figure attempting to reclaim past magic and a perennial winner who has built one of the most complete resumes in the sport. The weekend will reveal not only who is peak right now but also what each fighter can still offer at the highest level.