​Oct 18, 2026; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel talks with quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the second half against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThursday Night Football heads to Chicago for a Patriots-Bears affair in the Windy City. Two young quarterbacks will gun for the victory: Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. Both have shown promise early in their NFL careers and, at their best, have QB1 upside in fantasy football. Who might do better tonight? Let’s run the numbers. Fantasy Points Allowed Statistics are from FootballDBDefensive EPA Statistics are from DraftwithdougThe Case of Drake MayeMaye is averaging 30.5 passing attempts, 19.5 completions, 217 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 1.2 interceptions per game. He is adding another 5.7 rushing attempts, 31 rushing yards, 0.2 rushing touchdowns, and 0.8 fumbles per game. However, Maye has taken a turn for the better in recent weeks. Maye has 10 passing touchdowns and 1 interception over his last three games. He ranks 9th in PFF Passing Grade. I hypothesize that Maye had a bumpy start to the season partly due to playing with new No. 1 and No. 2 pass-catchers, AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs. He now has things sorted out. The Bears rank 19th in Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks. They rank 9th-best in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks at 11.7 per game, 11th-worst in Quarterback Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed per game, and 10th-worst in Quarterback Rushing Yards per Attempt Allowed.Most of Maye’s points will come from his passing. The Bears rank highly in EPA metrics. In Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play, the Bears are 5th-best in the NFL. I ultimately do have Maye’s Week 7 projection as favorable: QB4. His rushing expectation leads all quarterbacks. He is hard to contain as a sharp scrambler. He rushed for 628 yards in 2025 and 421 yards in his 2024 rookie season.The Bears’ pass defense isn’t elite enough to contain Maye. Josh McDaniels runs a West Coast offense that spreads the ball around. Don’t expect Chicago to clamp down on this Patriots offense, especially in a short week. The Case of Caleb WilliamsWilliams has essentially played three games. In Week 2, he was injured in the fourth quarter. He averages 30.3 passing attempts, 22.0 completions, 237 passing yards, 1.0 passing touchdown, and 0.3 interceptions per game. Williams also has 3.2 rushing attempts, 37 rushing yards, 0.7 rushing touchdowns, and 0.7 fumbles per game. Across three games, Williams is ranked 22nd in PFF Passing Grade but 4th in EPA per Dropback. He may not be the sharpest signal-caller, but he makes plays. The Patriots will offer a difficult matchup tonight. They rank 7th in Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks. They also contain the run game, ranking 10th-best in Fantasy Points Allowed per Game and 7th-best in Yards Allowed per Attempt. In EPA, the Patriots rank 13th in Defensive P